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SportsInsights.com Article
ARTICLE # 3 - NCAA HOOPS (11/2003 - 2/2005)
SportsInsights.com’s philosophy is that inefficiencies exist in
the sports betting marketplace. In particular, we believe that
“fading” (or “going against”) the “Public” can improve your
betting results. In this article, we study college basketball
data over the past two seasons. As you will see below, the
results once again demonstrate that fading “the Public” - and
the inherent biases of the Public - can increase one’s bottom
line. The information on this site is for entertainment and
educational purposes only. Use of this information in violation
of any federal, state, or local laws is prohibited.
NCAA
Hoops Data
Our database for college hoops covers
almost 5,500 games over the past two seasons. We present
results for the entire two-year period, as well as for the
current season (to look for consistency). We used rules similar
to what we used for the NBA (Article #1) in order to clean the
data and ensure the integrity of the results.
- Did not
use data if Public % was 0% or 100%
- NCAA Hoops
data from 11/03 – 2/05 (5492 games)
Line
Moves and Public Betting Percentage
We studied
“Line Moves” for college basketball games with and without
Public % as a factor. Table 1 shows the results for Line Moves
Only (without using the added information of what the Public is
doing.). Table 2 shows the results for Line Moves – with Public
% in the Opposite Direction of the Line Move.
As you can see,
in almost every instance, “fading the Public” increases the
winning percentage. You can also see that the results show good
consistency for various Line Moves and across time periods (the
two columns of results).
This approach is a proxy for determining
where the “smart money” is going: by studying “Line Moves” in
relation to “Public Betting Percentage.” This is just one
method mentioned in our website’s “How To Win” section.
Table 1: Line Move Only
|
Line Move |
Nov 03 – Feb
05 (# games) |
Nov 04 – Feb
05 (# games) |
|
0.5 or more |
49.9% (4031) |
50.7% (1957) |
|
1.0 or more |
50.5% (2316) |
50.7% (1222) |
|
1.5 or more |
50.9% (1161) |
52.1% (649) |
|
2.0 or more |
51.8% (560) |
53.1% (339) |
|
2.5 or more |
54.6% (262) |
56.8% (169) |
Table 2: Line Move with
Public % in Opposite Direction
|
Line Move |
Nov 03 – Feb
05 (# games) |
Nov 04 – Feb
05 (# games) |
|
0.5 or more |
50.6% (1776) |
51.9% (869) |
|
1.0 or more |
51.2% (1002) |
51.8% (537) |
|
1.5 or more |
50.7% (469) |
51.8% (272) |
|
2.0 or more |
52.4% (208) |
54.1% (133) |
|
2.5 or more |
57.6% (92) |
62.0% (72) |
SportsInsights.com
SportsInsights.com is always trying to
improve our website and the information we provide. Recently,
we added the “Percentage of Actual Money Bet” to our information
tables. Please visit our Forum and let us know what additional
features you might find useful. We’d also like your input on
our articles.
We do not
guarantee that the trends and biases we’ve found will continue
to exist. It is impossible to predict the future. Any serious
academic research in the field of market efficiencies realizes
that inefficiencies disappear over time. Once inefficiencies
are discovered, it is only a matter of time before the market
corrects itself. We do not guarantee our data is error-free.
However, we’ve tried our best to make sure every score and
percentage is correct.
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