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SportsInsights.com Article -- MLB and Betting
Against the Public (Includes 2003-07 Seasons) April 2008
As a leader in
sports information services and research, SportsInsights
is pleased to update last year's baseball statistics on how
"Betting Against the Public" has fared over recent years. With
more than 11,000 data points over five seasons, baseball continues
to show impressive
statistical results. In addition, with many sports
winding down just as baseball is starting up, baseball will soon
be the "only game in town" for some sports investors. But
what a game it is: with a 162 game season and 30 teams, there
are plenty of profit opportunities! The information on this site is for entertainment and
educational purposes only. Use of this information in violation
of any federal, state, or local laws is prohibited.
MLB
Database (2003-2007 Seasons)
SportsInsights'
database for MLB now includes over 11,000 games over the past
five seasons. For the purposes of this article, we include
the playoffs, but exclude spring training. Similar to hockey, baseball is a "moneyline" sport, so that we
emphasize "units
won" (and not winning percentage).
Betting
Against the Public
Similar to last
year, we present results for "Betting Against the Public"
at different
thresholds of betting percentage AND for home teams and visiting
teams.
Table 1:
MLB and Betting Against the Public (2003-2007 Seasons)
| Betting % |
Home |
Visitor |
Total |
| 50 |
+71 units |
+3 units |
+74 units |
| 40 |
+67 |
+13 |
+80 |
| 30 |
+69 |
+62 |
+131 |
| 25 |
+66 |
-17 |
+49 |
| 20 |
+17 |
-2 |
+15 |
| 15 |
+26 |
-4 |
+22 |
Using the
Table
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In addition
to overall "Bet Against" results, we have broken out how Betting Against the Public
works if a team is
either a Home team or a Visitor.
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For
example, if a Home team has less than 30% of the public betting on
them (Visitor has more than 70% of the public), this scenario resulted in
+69 units!
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On the
other hand, Visitors with less than 30% of the bets (more
than 70% of bets on
Home team), resulted in +62 units.
Some
Notes
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The 30%
level continues to be the largest profit-maker in terms of
units won. The past three years, we showed +78 units
(over 3 years) for the 30%
level of "Betting Against the Public" since
inception, then +111 (over 4 years) last year -- and +131
(over 5 years) for the entire database.
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Higher or
lower Betting Percentage thresholds will increase or
decrease the number of plays respectively.
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In
baseball, the data seems to suggest that when betting
against the public, leaning towards the Home Team might
improve results.
Good luck during the upcoming baseball season!
Disclaimer
We do not guarantee that the trends and biases we’ve found will
continue to exist. It is impossible to predict the future. Any
serious academic research in the field of “market efficiencies”
recognizes that inefficiencies may disappear over time. Once
inefficiencies are discovered, it is only a matter of time
before the market corrects itself. We do not guarantee our data
is error-free. However, we’ve tried our best to make sure every
score and percentage is correct.
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