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SportsInsights.com Article -- MLB and Betting
Against the Public - UPDATED (Includes 2003-06 Seasons)
SportsInsights
is one of the leaders of sports information services and in this
article, we update
last year's baseball statistics on how
"Betting Against the Public" has fared over recent years. With almost 10,000 games over four seasons, baseball continues
to show impressive
statistical results. In addition, with many sports
winding down just as baseball is starting up, baseball will soon
be the "only game in town" for some sports investors. But
what a game it is: with a 162 game season and 30 teams, there
are plenty of profit opportunities! The information on this site is for entertainment and
educational purposes only. Use of this information in violation
of any federal, state, or local laws is prohibited.
MLB
Database (2003-2006 Seasons)
SportsInsights'
database for MLB now includes some 9,000 games over the past
four seasons. For the purposes of this article, we include
the playoffs, but exclude spring training. Similar to
hockey, baseball is a "moneyline" sport, so that we show "units
won" (and not a winning percentage).
Betting
Against the Public
This year, we
present the "Bet Against" table in a slightly different format.
You'll see how Betting Against the Public worked at different
thresholds of betting percentage AND for home teams and visiting
teams.
Table 1:
MLB and Betting Against the Public (2003-2006 Seasons)
| Betting % |
Home |
Visitor |
Total |
| 50 |
+51 units |
+11 units |
+62 units |
| 40 |
+45 |
+18 |
+63 |
| 30 |
+63 |
+48 |
+111 |
| 25 |
+70 |
-16 |
+54 |
| 20 |
+24 |
+7 |
+31 |
| 15 |
+33 |
+1 |
+34 |
Using the
Table
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In the
past, we gave figures for Betting Against the Public,
irregardless of whether the team was home or away.
The "Total" column contains this information.
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In
addition, we have broken out how Betting Against the Public
works at various levels of Public disfavor -- if a team is
either a Home team or a Visitor.
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For
example, if a Home team has 30% (or less) of the public betting on
them (Visitor then has 70% or more of the public), over the past
four seasons, this scenario resulted in +63 units!
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On the
other hand, Visitors with 30% of the bets (70% of bets on
Home team), resulted in +48 units.
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Using
SportsInsights' statistics to study various parameters can
help make your sports investing more profitable!
Some
Notes
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The 30%
level continues to be the largest profit-maker in terms of
units won. Last year, we showed +78 units for the 30%
level of "Betting Against the Public" over three seasons
worth of data. This year, we show +111 units in total:
very decent consistency.
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Higher or
lower Betting Percentage thresholds will increase or
decrease the number of plays respectively.
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In
baseball, the data seems to suggest that when betting
against the public, leaning towards the Home Team might
improve results.
Good luck during the upcoming baseball season! Now..
let's Play Ball!
Disclaimer
We do not guarantee that the trends and biases we’ve found will
continue to exist. It is impossible to predict the future. Any
serious academic research in the field of “market efficiencies”
recognizes that inefficiencies may disappear over time. Once
inefficiencies are discovered, it is only a matter of time
before the market corrects itself. We do not guarantee our data
is error-free. However, we’ve tried our best to make sure every
score and percentage is correct.
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