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SportsInsights.com Article: Betting Against
the Public in the NBA (Last Six Seasons, ending June 2009)
SportsInsights
is pleased to bring you this year's "Bet Against the
Public" results for the upcoming NBA Season. Our
database now includes six seasons worth of data --- and almost
8,000 games. Most importantly, the results continue to
show that "contrarian sports investing" can help put
the "wind in your sails." In this article, we
also present results for "betting against the Public"
-- on Visiting teams. Visiting teams appear to be
undervalued in the NBA.
The information
on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only.
Use of this information in violation of any federal, state, or
local laws is prohibited.
NBA Data 2003-2009
The SportsInsights NBA database now includes six complete
season's worth of data. Here are some notes on the data
that we
used for this article:
- Data for the past six seasons (November 2003 through
June 2009)
- Includes the regular season and playoffs
- Excludes pre-season and All-Star Games
- Almost 8,000 games.
You can purchase SportsInsights' historical database to perform
your own research by visiting the following webpage:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/historical-betting-odds-result-download.aspx
Data is available for seven major US sports -- and may be
purchased as a group -- or for individual sports.
Betting Against the Public -- NBA
Over the years, SportsInsights' proprietary
"betting percentages" (obtained from actual
sportsbooks) have proven to be a good contrarian sports
investing tool. Our Members can often find value by
finding the most "lopsided bet" games of the day --
and "Betting Against the
Public." More specifically, if we see less than
23% of the bets on one team, it means that the public
might be undervaluing that team. There are a limited
number of games
below the 20% level.
Table 1: NBA and
Betting Against the Public (Last Six Seasons, ending June 2009)
|
Betting % |
Win % |
|
40% |
50.7% |
|
35% |
50.2% |
|
30% |
50.7% |
|
25% |
50.1% |
|
23% |
51.1% |
NBA Visitors Undervalued
The past six years of NBA data has shown that Visiting teams
may be undervalued more than Home teams. That is, if you
"Bet Against the Public" and select only Visiting (or
Away) teams (Table 2), your winning percentage would be higher
than when both Visitors and Home teams are selected (Table 1,
above). The 53.7% winning percentage we bolded in
the chart below is pretty solid -- for a very simple system.
Table 2: NBA Visitors
and
Betting Against the Public (Last Six Seasons, ending June 2009)
|
Betting % |
Win % |
|
40% |
52.1% |
|
35% |
51.5% |
|
30% |
52.8% |
|
25% |
52.1% |
|
23% |
53.7% |
Summary
SportsInsights.com prides itself in being an industry leader
in sports information services. We hope that you will make SportsInsights your
one-stop shop for everything from live betting odds
and scores to sports investing
information -- and betting systems. Our Members enjoy some of the most innovative
sports marketplace information available!
SportsInsights develops analytical tools that build upon sports
marketplace indicators (such as "betting percentages"
and "line moves") to give our Members an edge over
other handicappers.
Disclaimer
We do not guarantee that the trends and biases we’ve found will
continue to exist. It is impossible to predict the future. Any
serious academic research in the field of “market efficiencies”
recognizes that inefficiencies may disappear over time. Once
inefficiencies are discovered, it is only a matter of time
before the market corrects itself. We do not guarantee our data
is error-free. However, we’ve tried our best to make sure every
score and percentage is correct.
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