Sports Betting Over Under Analysis
"Market Efficiency and a Profitable Betting
Rule"
Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach
2002
The following is a brief summary of a 2002
"Over/Under" (Totals) study conducted by two economist, Rodney Paul and
Andrew Weinbach. They uncover and interesting
Over/Under patterns Their paper entitle, "Market
Efficiency and a Profitable Betting Rule,"
appeared in The Journal of Sports Economics.
This 2002 study focuses on "total" bets, wagers on
the total # of points scored by the home and
visiting team. They look at all the total bets from
1979-2000 (4,589 Games). The authors theorizes that
people enjoy rooting for scoring so the total should
be artificially inflated in games that have higher
than average total. Mostly games that feature two
high scoring teams. As the table below demonstrates,
they found interesting and profitable results.
THE "UNDER" IN THE NFL
1979-200 (4,589 Games)
| |
"Under" Win % |
| All games (average pre-game total =
40.3) |
51.0% |
| Games with pre-game total of 45.5 or
higher |
55.1% |
| Games with pre-game total of 46.5 or
higher |
57.0% |
| Games with pre-game total of 47.5 or
higher |
58.7%
|
|