Week 1 College Football Opening Weekend
Inside the mind of the Sportsbook
by T.B
9/3/2004 12:35PM EST

Welcome back football fans,
While baseball season has managed to hold our interest with some great pennant races there's nothing that compares to the excitement of opening weekend of football. Yes, there were some games last week including USC the #1 team in the land. But most people look at this weekend as the true opening of the season. It's time again for tailgating, BBQ'ing, throwing down 15-20 cold beverages of your choice, and most importantly, winning a few bucks. Most people like to think of themselves fairly knowledgeable of the teams and the upcoming games. They've read the preseason prognostications, the ESPN previews and they're checking the police blotters to see which juicehead got himself arrested for simultaneously sexually assaulting some co-ed while clothes lining some poor schlep at a campus party. But why go in with that knowledge when you can go in armed with the ridiculously effective stats and information that you can only find exclusively on Sports Insights? Wouldn't it be helpful to know how heavy the public is betting on each game? Wouldn't it make a difference to know what the wiseguys are getting down on? Of course it would.

Through Sports Insights' unique relationship with some of the biggest offshore casinos in the world like Oasis Casino and the recently added WWTS, you can have access to this type of information on EVERY game on the board. Take it from someone who sat behind an offshore lineboard for the better part of 7 years. I CAN NOT believe this information is out there. Line moves, betting percentages, wiseguy plays, it's all here. Let me give you a scenario that makes any bookie nauseous. Game opens on Sunday night -6.5 and from the get go you can't get people off this game. All week, they are just absolutely CRUSHING it. Your exposure screen is rotating through like the Progressive jackpot display in the casino. Come Sat. night it looks like your whole month is going to come down to this one game so you make the move to 7. And what happens? WHACK, WHACK, WHACK! Three of your biggest customers pop you on the Internet and two minutes later the game is a wash. Ahh, technology.

So of course the 'dog wins outright and you just gave away all of your profit. It's a bookie's worst nightmare. Like a child you reared and tended to all week, molding it, shaping it. And he comes back and pulls a Jim Morrison in 'The End.' - "Mother, I want to F**k YOU!" Of course you could have sat on -6.5, the game lands on 7 and you're walking the streets at 5 in the morning asking clubgoers if you can wash their windshield. The point is there is value to be had. Take this scenario and multiply it by the number of games on the board, then multiply it by the number of weeks in a season. Mistakes will be made. And by using all the tools available to you on Sports Insights you'll be much better equipped to take advantage when they are.

The information can be utilized in so many different ways. Maybe you love to load up on the powerhouses. Miami's favored by -27 and 90% of the public is on them? Big deal you say, the line's gonna go up to -30 and they'll win by 45. So -27 is a steal. Or maybe you want to follow the smart money? That's where the Wiseguy Play comes in. And tracking line movement? Comparing casinos to see who's got the most favorable number? Getting that 2.5 point middle? It's all HERE! Throughout the season we'll be going into further detail about how to use this information to your advantage by looking at a couple of games. This week we'll start with Notre Dame at BYU. It's a 9:15 EST game on Saturday night.

I love these games. You sit there all day since 8 AM just< battling. There's 75-80 games on the board but calm settles in after the 7 PM kickoffs. The dayshift has left the building and you're just waiting for the late eruption to begin. Go outside for a smoke, come back in and this game is staring you in the face. Looking at Sports Insights we see the game opened ND -4 and has since moved to -5. The public is ALL OVER the Irish rigth now, 84% of straight bets and 83% of parlays and teasers. Now Tyrone Willingham has brought some excitement to South Bend and God knows they need it. I don't think today's recruit was falling over to play for the Irish because he saw that footage of Knute Rockne with his pants hiked up to his sternum. Not in today's Bling Bling culture. Long way to go before kickoff. A lot of people think ND is going to have a big year. Will that line keep inching up, maybe even to a touchdown? Ah, but then again it's BYU at home in their opener. Maybe that's exactly what you're waiting for so you can drill the othe side. Man, I love this stuff.

The other game to look at is THE game of the week. Of course I'm talking about Miami vs. FSU. Originally scheduled for Labor Day night, Hurricane Frances has moved the game to Friday night, another non-conventional evening. God bless the schedule makers. You know we're just around the corner from having football on TV seven nights a week in the fall. Glad to see they've seen the light. In this one Miami opened at -2 and that's where it still is. Looking at Sports Insights we see the early money is on Miami. 58% of the staight bets, but more tellingly, 74% of the parlays and teasers. This is what we like to call "The Junk." But sometimes your whole week can come down to just breaking up those teasers. Doesn't matter which side wins, as long as both sides don't. Some of the biggest bloodbaths I've ever seen were on games that both sides of the total and sides hit on teasers. All the customer had to do was get his bet in and it was a winner. I still get the shutters thinking about those. Good luck on those games, and the rest of the schedule this week. NFL opens Thursday night again this year with New England hosting Indianapolis, a rematch of last year's AFC Championship game. And the rest of the league comes back on Sunday. Start exercising those clicker hands. Until next time ...

T.B.