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Behind The Lines Vol. 7
by T.B
Courtesy of SportsInsights.com
10/15/2004 1:22PM EST
Behind The Lines Vol. 7
You would think after 22 years of being involved
in this business in one capacity or another, I would know enough not to
go against certain unalienable truths. The first, and pretty much the
Golden Rule: Don’t Count Your Money Until The Final Whistle!
Last night Louisville was up 31-14 halfway through
the 3rd quarter. All year I’ve been saying Miami is only as
good as its defense and last night the defense wasn’t there. The game
was not lopsided, in fact checking the Sports Insights graph right
before kickoff the game was bet almost right down the middle with 51%
of the Straight action on Louisville.
But when a team like Miami is going down, and
you’re going to break up all the teasers? You know that’s a good sign
for the weekend and half of your Saturday junk would probably grade out
as a loser. Customers have to reload and start all over again. I even
went so far as to discuss same with a colleague (who also should have
known better).
So what happens? Miami comes back to win 41-38 and
with a spread of 9.5 that went down to 8.5 just about every teaser on
the board is a winner. Only the 6 pt. teasers on Miami at the opening
number were losers. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
The other rule I went against last week: When a
line is “obviously” wrong, bet the other side. For instance this
week New England is laying 4 at home against Seattle. They’ve won 19 in
a row, 2 out of the last 3 Super Bowls, they’re playing at home and
they’re only giving 4? The local Boston bookies must be crying right
now. But going by our above rule, the money SHOULD be on Seattle.
Last week the Rule applied to the Tennessee @
Georgia game. Georgia was coming off a huge win over LSU, Tennessee
coming off a bad loss at home against Auburn. The line was screaming,
“Bet Tennessee! Bet Tennessee!” But I tried to put personal analysis
into that game instead of just going with a theory that’s been proven
true time and time again over the past 2 decades. Lesson learned.
As far as how the books did last weekend, they
breathed a huge sigh of relief. Saturdays have been fairly successful
and last week was no different. Sunday started out with 2 big early
games hitting, Detroit and the Giants.
However the ‘swing’ game was New England. The
‘swing’ game is the game that can turn your day into a Monster or it
puts you right back down again and the rest of the day is a dogfight.
The line opened New England – 13 and closed at – 11.5. Down 14 points,
Miami had 1st and Goal inside the New England 1 yd. line with
under three minutes to go in the game and couldn’t score. Wannstedt and
the offensive coordinator should have been fired on the plane ride
home.
But the 4 o’clock games came up big, especially San
Diego and the huge comeback win by St. Louis. Tack on the Tennessee
blowout on Monday night and all in all a good weekend. Now onto this
weekend:
Carolina @ Philadelphia – Sun. 1 PM EST (Fox)
Depending on where you look the opener in this
one was Philly -8, although in some newspapers have it listed as -7.5.
Regardless it is now up to -9 at most places. Looking at our Sports
Insights betting graphs we see there are 70% of the Straight bets on
Philadelphia, 70% of the Parlays and Teasers are on Philadelphia and a
ridiculous 86% of the Total money is on the Over, which now stands at
41.5.
This tells us that after a few weeks, the
public has gone back to the old standby: Favorite to the Over. Doesn’t
matter what year it is, which favorites are involved, but if you’re
behind the lineboard week after week, you’re rooting for ‘Dogs and
Under.
Be careful about jumping on the bandwagon here
and be sure to keep checking Sports Insights for the late line moves.
After the way Carolina defense manhandled the heavily favored Eagles in
last year’s NFC Championship, this is a prime spot for some Smart Money
to come in on the Panthers and you could see a line move against the
money.
Pittsburgh @ Dallas – Sun. 4:15 PM EST (CBS)
Let’s look at a game that screams, “DANGER!”
according to Golden Rule # 2 mentioned above. Pittsburgh is 4-1
overall, 3-0 with Roethlisberger as the starting QB. Dallas is 2-2 and
looked bad last week at home against the Giants. So of course the line
is Dallas -3. And of course the public is saying thank you Mr. Linesman
for this very generous gift. They’re saying this to the tune of 85% of
the Straight bets and 83% of the ‘Junk.’
Heck even Parcells came out this week and said
Roethlisberger is the the next Dan Marino. Think there might be a
little psychological seed being planted there? This is also a game
where 86% of the Total bets are on the Over.
The key in betting this game is patience. As
much as the books hate to move off the number 3, you could see this one
go in either direction right before kickoff. If the action continues to
pour in on the Steelers a few places may get nervous about the size of
their decision and go to 3.5. On the other hand a few Wiseguys may
pound Dallas late.
Teaser Of The Week
We are going to stick with the Golden Rule
logic this week. Our first selection is Indianapolis. What, they’re
not playing this week? Oh well, the our first selection is Kansas City,
giving 2 on the road against Jacksonville.
Two weeks ago, Jacksonville was the darling of
the league. They lose a tough one to Indy, then didn’t show up last
week. So now they return home and they’re GETTING points against a team
with one win? Why? My heart says Jacksonville because that’s what my
wallet is going to need, but my head says KC. The second team is
Seattle. Bumping up a team that should be undefeated to + 11 is too
good of an opportunity to pass up. As always, enjoy the games this
weekend … T.B.
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