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Behind the Lines
Vol. 2
by
T.B and courtesy of SportsInsights.com
9/10/2004 11:25AM EST
YES! YES! YES! It’s finally here! After a summer worth of
waiting, endless teases and previews the moment is finally here. That’s right
it’s … the series premiere of ‘Joey’ starring that lovable goof, Matt Leblanc!
Yeah right, just checking to see if you’re paying attention. Anybody happen to
catch that? I was too busy watching the NFL pregame show before Colts-Patriots
to see if Jessica Simpson suffered a wardrobe malfunction. I wish someone had
told me there was a 10 second tape delay. There’s ten minutes of my life I
ain’t getting back.
The big announcement from the NFL for the weekend is the
game between Tennessee and Miami has been moved to a Saturday at 1 PM start
time due to the expected arrival of Hurricane Ivan. I love it how people always
talk about moving to Florida because the weather is so nice. Tell that to the
people who are bracing for their third monster in about a month.
This storm may also have an impact on the offshore casino
world as well. It just narrowly missed the island of Curacao, home to Sports
Insights’ partners Oasis and Gameday. This was quite a scare for the folks
down there as historically the island is outside of the hurricane belt. The
path turned north which was great news for Curacao but not so good for Jamaica.
Ivan is on a direct course for the island which is also a haven for a couple of
sportsbooks. Here’s hoping for another turn out to sea, but it’s not looking
good.
Well the weather is something that’s out of our control so
let’s turn our attention to something you do have a say in: where to put your
money down this weekend. There is a full slate of college ball Saturday but
since it’s opening weekend of the NFL our focus is going there. One college
note: looking at our bet graph on Sports Insights for the FSU-Miami game
we see the parlay/teaser count for Miami has dropped from 74% down to 61%. What
does that tell us? That people know that since 1983 there have been seven games
in this series decided by 3 points or less.
Do they also know that Miami has one EVERY single one of
those games! What is the reason for such an outstanding stat? Not a big
secret: FSU’s kickers perform as if they have 2 hands wrapped around their
throat. Choke, choke, choke. How else can you explain someone like Janikowski,
who has the leg to make it from 60 + yards, not coming through in a situation
like that? Me thinks a moneyline bet on the ‘Canes is in order …
Alright, let’s take a look at some games on the NFL slate:
Tennessee @ Miami – Sat.
1 PM
How about this one,
the first game of the weekend? Miami, a perennial playoff squad (albeit a
perennial playoff early exit team) is getting 3 points in their home opener.
Obviously the betting public thinks this line should be much higher as they are
ALL OVER the Titans, to the tune of 91% on the straight bets! Ninety-one
percent? Those are Reagan-Mondale numbers. What’s up with this? Doesn’t Miami
still have Junior Seau, Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor anchoring their D? Hasn’t
Tennessee shown a propensity for injuries, especially Steve McNair? And now
Tennessee doesn’t have a kicker after Joe Nedney’s hamstring injury in practice
on Tuesday. Books are very hesitant to move off the number 3, but if this game
goes to +3.5 or +4 you have to consider it.
Seattle @ New
Orleans – Sun. 1 PM
Here’s another line
that has the potential to move in favor of a home ‘dog. The line here is
Seattle -2.5, it’s been there since it opened. Now I read 10 preseason
publications and I believe 8 of them had Seattle representing the NFC in the
Super Bowl. And right now people are betting as if they believe the hype: 68%
of the straight bets and 80% of the Junk drawer are on Seattle. I guarantee
this game will hit -3 before kickoff. Make sure you keep checking Sports
Insights to see which of your outs makes the move first.
Dallas @ Minnesota – Sun. 4:15 PM
The last game we’ll take a look at on this week’s slate shows the home team
favored in this one. But obviously the public doesn’t think it’s by enough as
this is another game where we have another 91% of the public unloading on one
team. Minnesota -4.5 is the play here so far. I only have one word of caution
for you: when people are betting the game so heavily, like they already know the
final score? Tread very carefully … T.B
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