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Behind The Lines Vol. 11
by T.B.
Courtesy of SportsInsights.com
11/12/2004 7:22 PM EST
It’s amazing to me how some people can walk into
the bank and cash their check without feeling the need to wear a mask
and hold a gun. Now there are incompetent boobs in just about every
industry out there who don’t earn their paycheck. But it seems there’s
a higher concentration of them in the offshore industry. However, it’s
one thing to make a mistake and quite another to gloat about it
afterwards. Take the following example.
In his recap of last week’s action a spokesman for
one offshore shop talks about the fact his book did not follow the move
on the Notre Dame @ Tennessee game:
“The
‘sharpies’ got down on Notre Dame early and moved the line down from the
key number of -7, to -6 ½ dropping as low as -6 in places at kickoff.
So, standard logic dictated we too should have been at -6 ½, or -6 as
well right? Wrong. Here’s why: we wrote more than 6 to 1 tickets on the
Tennessee and simply followed our action. Not only did we not move down
to -6 ½ to -6, but we actually moved the other way to -7 ½! The ‘Irish’
… upset the ‘Vols’ 17-13 and showed a huge win for the house.”
Now, I haven’t sat in the chair for awhile but I
think I still remember a few things. Doesn’t it make sense if these
guys had moved the number down to -6 ½ or -6, they would have
invited even more action on Tennessee, thus guaranteeing them
even more profit? Plus, moving to -7.5 now invites someone to
come in and pop you and take away whatever profit you were sitting on.
Of course you don’t know the score ahead of time so I’m not blaming them
for not making the move down. I’m just saying I wouldn’t be bragging
about it afterwards when I know in the end my decision cost the company
money.
Before we look ahead at this week’s contests I’d
like to revisit a topic that users of Sports Insights know a lot about:
Smart Money. As explained on the Sports Insights ‘How To Win’ section,
the Smart Money Method, “primarily
looks for betting line movements that contradict the betting
percentages.”
Two games that we talked in detail last week dealt
with the Smart Money concept. Both Houston, visiting Denver, and Kansas
City, visiting Tampa Bay, were attracting a huge number of bets. In the
case of KC they were getting over 90% of the bets. Yet in both
games, the number had moved against the teams generating all that
action. So what happens? Underdog Tampa Bay wins outright 34-31 and
Denver pounds Houston 31-13 to easily make their number. Just another
example of how invaluable the information on Sports Insights really is.
On to the weekend:
Kansas
City @ New Orleans – Sun. 1:00 (CBS)
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice,
shame on me. Once again Kansas City is favored against an NFC South
opponent. This time the line opened -4.5 … and KC is getting 82%
of the Straight bets and 91% of the Parlays and Teasers … and yet
the line is going down again! Here’s yet another instance of the Smart
Money Method coming in to play. Now that the Wiseguys have had half a
season to assess, watch for this to happen more as we head into the
stretch run.
Detroit @ Jacksonville – Sun. 1:00 (FOX)
This is a match-up of two, true ‘Jekyl
and Hyde’ teams. From one week to the next you don’t know what you are
going to get from either team and that’s especially true this week for
Jacksonville as Byron Leftwich is out at quarterback with a strained
left knee. That means former East Carolina star, David Garrard, will be
getting the start. The opening line was Jacksonville -3 and the
Jags are getting 73% of the Straight bets. Some places haven’t budged
off of -3 and the ones that have only moved the money. We see some
3-125’s and 3-120’s out there. Detroit started out winning their first 3
games on the road, but lost two weeks ago in Dallas before losing at
home to Washington last week. If you like the Lions this is a good spot
to grab them, getting the plus money.
Teaser
Of The Week
Back to our winning ways last week in a big
way. The Raiders won outright while getting 14 points from Carolina and
the Patriots blew out the Rams by 22. This week New England opened -8,
they’re getting 85% of the Straight bets, but the line has moved down to
-7.5 and even -7 at some places. That’s a warning sign for Smart money
on the Bills. While that holds true for the Straight bets
(we wouldn’t lay the 7.5 either), there’s another rule in effect here: Belichick OWNS Bledsoe. He has for his whole career. So New England to
a pk. is the first leg. The second leg is Dallas. Parcells on Monday
night, the Eagles looked in disarray last week, Dallas at home, all
those factors make it too much to pass up teasing Dallas to +13.5 or
+14, depending on your out. Enjoy the games this weekend … T.B.
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