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Behind The Lines Vol. 10
by T.B.
Courtesy of SportsInsights.com
11/05/2004 3:15 PM EST
Well in the words of my man Flava Flav, who is
currently disgracing himself on some horrible reality show on VH1, “This
time the Revolution will not be televised.” It was a tough week for the
Hub of The Universe. First the Patriots 21-game winning streak was
ended at Heinz Field. Then John Kerry lost and the following night the
Celtics blew a 17 point lead in their opener to the 76ers.
But thankfully the NBA has returned in full force.
And just in the nick of time, I don’t think I could have gone on much
longer without my hockey! Just kidding. Besides Barry Melrose has
anyone even noticed the NHL isn’t playing right now? But the NBA coming
back is important because if you look at the schedule there’s really
only 3 WEEKS left of full NCAA action. I can’t believe the football
season is moving along at this rate.
At least the wins have picked up recently, at least
for some books. Last weekend was up and down and each shop I’m in
contact with had a different story for each day. On the whole Saturday
was decent but Sunday it seemed like the books were running in quicksand
all day, just couldn’t get started.
Right out of the gates Green Bay and Buffalo dashed
the hopes of having a monster day. Two easy covers, over the Redskins
and Cardinals respectively, meant the books were bailing water already.
The Giants, Falcons and Steelers made things interesting but most places
only managed to scrape out a small profit.
Monday night was QUITE interesting though. What a
strange game. Most of the early money, including a few bucks from yours
truly, was all over the Jets. I’ve been saying it since around Week 2,
the Jets are better than the small amount of attention they’re getting
so far. A big surprise there, a team from New York tied for the best
record in the AFC and they’re still flying under the radar.
Anyways, something strange happened at a few of the
offshore shops: Wiseguy money started flooding in on Miami. The lucky
few accepted this gift from the gambling gods while those who didn’t
receive the windfall basically gave back all they made on Cincinnati the
Monday before, and then some. Let’s take a look at the week ahead but
we’ll look at the games in pairs this week.
Vikings
@ Colts – Mon. 9:00 (ABC) and Saints @ Chargers – Sun. 4:05 (FOX)
Well in Vol. 5 (http://www.sportsinsights.com/behindthelines_vol5.asp)
this space predicted a Colts game this year would have a posted
Over/Under of 60 or more. If ever there was a game for it to happen,
this would be it. Right now it stands at a gaudy 58 ½ and could climb
up to the magical 60 number before kickoff but I doubt it. Even though
both of these teams play NO defense, 60 is still a number books don’t
like to put out there.
The reason I tied this game with the Chargers
is the pointspread in each game. The Colts opened up at -6 as did San
Diego. Right now, there are 6 ½’s posted for each home favorite. For
that reason I don’t put them in the category of home favorite too weak
to lay -7 because I think by kickoff of both games you will see 7’s out
there. Right now the Chargers are getting 74% of the Straight money
while Indianapolis getting practically ALL of the money in their game.
With Randy Moss still questionable and the way Minnesota looked last
week, don’t expect that to change too much.
Texans
@ Broncos – Sun. 4:15 (CBS) and Chiefs @ Buccaneers – Sun. 1:00 (CBS)
We put these two games together because
of some funny line movement. Denver opened as a 6 ½ point favorite at
home against Houston. Even though the action is on Houston, to the tune
of 57% of the Straights and 61% of the ‘Junk,’ we see the line has
actually climbed to -7 at most places.
In the other game, Tampa Bay is a home ‘dog.
The line itself hasn’t changed, but the money has even though K.C. is
getting an enormous amount of the action: right now an incredible 92% of
the Straights and 91% of Parlays/Teasers. So the line should be shading
in favor of the Chiefs, right? You would think but right now we see
Oasis has moved it to K.C. -3 +100 and Pinnacle has it K.C. -3 +103.
Doesn’t seem like much but you have to question where the ‘smart’ money
is going in a situation like this.
Teaser
Of The Week
Well we jumped back on the Indianapolis
bandwagon last week and they almost pulled off the cover. But their
defense is just SOOOO bad, it’s gotten to the point we can’t just rely
on the league’s best offense to bail them out.
So this week we turn to our tried and true
strategy: Things that make you go, “Hmmm.” The Patriots secondary is
decimated with both starting corners out for this one. The running game
managed 5 YARDS total last week and Corey Dillon is questionable again
this week. So how in the world are they favored on the road in a dome
against St. Louis? We don’t know either so the Patriots teased up to +
4 ½ will be the first leg.
The second leg is the Raiders. I hate the
Raiders, I think they’ll lose 12 games this year. But teasing them up
to +14 is too good to pass up. I mean Carolina is 1-6 and averages 14
points a game. So theoretically the Raiders could get shut out and
still get a push on this. “Just score, baby.” Enjoy the games this
weekend … T.B.
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