NFL Marketwatch
2011-12 Season Recap
1/7/2012
By Daniel Fabrizio
President
The
NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of SportsInsights.com, with the goal of providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market.
The column takes an academic and contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article
published in the
Wall Street Journal, entitled, "A Contrarian's Guide to Football Betting." SportsInsights.com is a leader in the sports information industry and has published a popular and best-selling
Sports Investing series of books as well as
articles comparing the Sports Marketplace to the Financial Markets and
Contrarian Sports Investing: Why It Works.
The column is normally published every Saturday morning. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the
NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on
Saturday mornings.
Sign-up to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch
Recapping the 2011 Regular Season (12-5 = 70.6%)
Our gut-wrenching play on St. Louis + 11 for the last selection of the
regular season covered the spread. This concluded a highly successful
regular season for the NFL Marketwatch -- and improved Sports Insights'
NFL
Marketwatch to 12-5 (70.6%) for the regular season.
Since its inception more than
seven years ago, Sports Insights' popular NFL
Marketwatch column has produced a winning percentage of over 57%.
Sports Insights' NFL Best Bets and NFL Marketwatch have combined
for about a (60%) record this season. Last season, Sports Insights' contrarian methods of
Betting Against the Public, including
Square Plays,
Best Bets, and
Marketwatch had a solid
NFL season -- and produced a combined winning percentage of
about 55%, with
NFL Squares at 57%. Check out the SportsInsights.com
Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
| Year |
Record |
Win Percentage |
| NFL 2011-12 |
12-5 |
70.6% |
| NFL 2010-11 |
14-12 |
53.8% |
| NFL 2009-10 |
25-23 |
52.1% |
| NFL 2008-09 |
26-22 |
54.2% |
| NFL 2007-08 |
26-19 |
57.8% |
| NFL 2006-07 |
31-18 |
63.3% |
| NFL 2005-06 |
31-24 |
56.4% |
| TOTAL |
165-123 |
57.3% |
Special Thanks
I would like to thank the odds makers at our contributing sportsbooks for
taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to
their line boards and thoughts. It has been an education for myself, the team
at Sports Insights -- and hopefully our readers.
I would also like to
thank our readers and especially our Members. Your encouragement and
support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope that the
NFL Marketwatch
has shown readers the importance of contrarian value in sports investing.
View Last Week’s Column
Tracking Public Performance
The public had another decent week, going 4-3 in lopsided-bet games,
defined as games with 65% or more of the bets on one team.
The public ended the regular season with a cumulative record of 74-72 (50.7%)
for the 2011 NFL Regular Season in these types of games. This is
still not good enough to beat the vig, but better than the public has done
historically (about 48%) in "public" games. The success of the
NFL
Marketwatch shows that
extreme betting percentages and
"ugly" plays can capture more value for contrarian sports
bettors.
NFL Playoff Outlook and Summary
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season.
The
amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the
Super Bowl, the most-wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone -- and their
mother -- wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the
professional sports bettor – to the Super Bowl commercials: everyone has some
interest.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means
opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion
when deciding on a game’s betting line. They will shade a line 2-3 pts knowing
that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of
“Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Sports Insights takes a unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. SportsInsights.com collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks
real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities.
By closely monitoring line movement and Sports Insights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.
If the
NFL Marketwatch has helped you improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try Sports
Insights'
Premium Pro
Membership. With the NFL Playoffs set to start, it will be another exciting NFL weekend.
Keep
NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest
Real Time Odds,
NFL Betting Trends and
NFL Betting System Picks.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com