11/5/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of SportsInsights.com, with the goal of providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings. Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch
Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try SportsInsights.com’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.
SportsInsights takes an academic view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in our popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books and our recent article comparing the sports marketplace to the financial markets.
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 9
Recapping Last Week
Overall Regular Season (11-6-1 = 64.7%)
Halloween weekend was a bit scary for the sportsbooks, with New Orleans’ Sunday night victory over Pittsburgh saving the books from a bloodbath. Some sportsbooks’ risk managers called last weekend, “The Revenge of Joe Public.” After consistently underperforming this season, the Public had a 4-2 weekend in lopsided-bet games having over 65% of the bets on one team. The Public rode New England, Miami, Tampa Bay and St. Louis to victories “against the spread” (ATS). “Joe Public” was
surprised by Tennessee and Pittsburgh failing to cover.
The Pittsburgh-New Orleans match-up was particularly interesting to SportsInsights.com’s analysts. Pittsburgh, after their huge start, even without “Big Ben” — captured a lot of media attention and the Public’s opinion as one of the NFL’s strongest teams. On the other hand, many sports fans were losing faith in the defending Super Bowl champion’s (New Orleans Saints) consistently lackluster play and devastating outright loss as a 14-point favorite the previous weekend. Sports fans piled onto Pittsburgh last weekend, but “smart money” moved the line towards New Orleans as a contrarian value play. This was
one of the two losses for the Public last weekend.
The Public had had it first winning week in a long time, going 4-3. They are now 24-32 = 42.9% for the season in lopsided-bet games. Historically, this lopsided-bet “trend” has been an important part of SportsInsights’ members and their handicapping process. View Last Week’s Column
SportsInsights NFL Best Bets went 4-1 last week, improving to 19-14 = 58% for season.
NFL Week 9 Sports Marketwatch – Game of the Week
SportsInsights.com takes a unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. SportsInsights.com collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
It’s not often that Sports Marketwatch has America’s Team, the Dallas Cowboys, as a selection. However, the Public is very fickle, and the closely-followed Cowboys have been a massive disappointment to their fans this year. The 1-6 Dallas Cowboys have just 30% of the bets in this Sunday Night’s game versus the Green Bay Packers. Earlier in the week, the betting line was bouncing around between Green Bay -7.5 or -8 earlier in the week — but “bigger money” on the Cowboys has moved the line
down to the generally-available GB -7.5.
Our readers know that we will go for the “ugly” play and “bet against the Public” while tailing the big, “smart money.” In addition, when we look closer at the numbers and situation, we can see reasons that the play is not as ugly as expected, and that there is potential value from a variety of sources:
We can buy Dallas at a low, because they have been a disappointment, and are currently riding a four-game losing streak.
We can sell Green Bay at a recent high, after their big shutout win over the high-flying Jets last week.
In the Cowboy’s 6 losses, only one was by more than 7 points. That happened to be last week versus Jacksonville, giving us added ammunition for “buying at a low.”
Remember that just a year ago, the Cowboys won the tough NFC East Division with a record of 11-5.
The Cowboys are without QB Tony Romo, but oftentimes, the line, and Public, overcompensates for this factor.
Before last week’s big win over the Jets, Green Bay’s last five games were decided by a maximum of four (4) points, with the Packers winning 2 and losing 3 of these games.
The 1-6 Cowboys have just a -33 margin of “points for” minus “points against” — not-terrible for their record. The 5-3 Packers are +40 points.
We like the value on the Dallas Cowboys this week. Currently, SIA and Bodog are still at Dallas +8, with SIA having slightly better odds/vig, but remember to shop around for the best line.
Dallas Cowboys +8 (Bet at SIA +8)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep your eye on the NFL Marketwatch game of the week and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time odds, betting trends, and winning betting systems picks.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch. Enjoy the games!