NFL Marketwatch Week 3 2010-11

9/24/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of SportsInsights.com, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday afternoons. Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try SportsInsights.com’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 3                                      

Recapping Last Week

Overall Regular Season (2-3-1 = 40.0%)

NFL Week 2 was kind to the sportsbooks and a great day for Betting Against the Public in the NFL. SportsInsights.com’s betting trends analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the bets on one teams, the Public went 2-7. For the season, that makes the Public 8-12 = 40%. Check out the SportsInsights.com sports betting information Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on a featured game of the day.

Our Games to Watch stumbled for the 2nd week, posting a flat 1-1-1 record (losing, when you count the vig). But always remember that one or two weekends don’t make or break a season. Consistent winning means winning over an entire season. Anyone can go 5-0, but very few professional sports bettors can achieve a winning percentage above 55% for an entire season. Readers from previous years will note that we have sometimes started off previous seasons slowly, going 1-2 in Week 1 and Week 2. However, over several years of publishing NFL Marketwatch, we have had one flat year, with the rest being profitable! It’s about patience and believing in your research. View Last Week’s Column

What’s the Best Sportsbook to Bet Against the Public?
I get this question all the time from readers. If you’re planning on Betting Against the Public this football season, BetUS is a must-have sportsbook. They consistently offer the best underdog lines and the most generous depositing bonuses. You’ll get an extra .5 pt to 1 pt every time you make a bet.  Visit BetUS today, it’s where I bet!

NFL Week 3 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

SportsInsights.com takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.  SportsInsights.com collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers

There are several games this week that are as “lopsided-bet” as we’ll see all season. The Carolina Panthers have just 10% of the bets, when you consider both spread bets and “teasers and parlays.”  With the public betting on the Cincinnati Bengals “like no tomorrow,” we want to “bet against the public” and take the Panthers.

The Panthers have been outscored 51-25, or an average of 13 points per game. However, they actually were handling the Giants well in Week 1, before the Giants pulled away at the end, with the final score making it look easier than it actually was.  The Panthers, at 0-2, are not winning many fans.  The Bengals, on the other hand, are coming off of huge win over a very tough Baltimore Raven team in Week 2.

Interestingly, CRIS had an opening line of Cincy -3.5 for this game, but even with almost every bet taking Cincy, the line has ticked down to Cincy -3.  That kind of “reverse line movement” is an indication of some big money more than balancing the action — and taking Carolina to bounce back.  We’ll follow the big money and “buy low” — by taking the Panthers after their slow start — and “sell high” by betting against the Bengals after their big win last week.  You can still grab the Panthers +3.5 at SIA and Bodog.

Carolina Panthers +3.5  (Bet at Sports Interaction +3.5 -105)

Washington Redskins vs St. Louis Rams

This game is the most “lopsided-bet” game on the board this week.  Including teasers and parlays, the St. Louis Rams are gathering less than 10% of all bets!  You would think that the Patriots, from their monster years, were playing against a junior high team!

The betting percentages are surprising because neither team is a particular standout.  Washington has been impressing NFL fans, but has outscored their opponents by just 40-37 in their two games.  Although the Rams are 0-2, they have lost their two games by a combined 6 points!  Many consider the Rams one of the worst teams in the league, and this is potentially the reason for the overwhelming number of bets on the Redskins.

CRIS opened at Washington -5, and even with all the bets landing on Washington, the line has moved all the way down to Washington -3.5 at most sportsbooks.  You can still grab the extra 0.5 pt to get to the key number of 4 — and go with the “big money.”

St Louis Rams +4    (Bet at Sports Interaction +4 -105)

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Both teams are 1-1, but Jacksonville got crushed by San Diego last week, 38-13.  Fans notice these big losses and often overreact.  Currently, about 80% of the bets are landing on the Eagles.  Interestingly, again, there is an indication of “reverse line movement” in this game.  Pinnacle opened this game at Eagles -3 and even with most bets landing on the Eagles, Pinnacle has moved to -2.5.

We spoke with our contact at a large offshore sportsbook and he confirmed that some of his larger and “sharper” players have shown an interest in the Jaguars.  Let’s tag along with the “sharps” and grab the key number of +3 while we still can.  It appears that this is the week of small home dogs; let’s hope we get some good, live, dogs going this Sunday!

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 -115   (Bet at Sports Interaction +3 -115)

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch.

Games to Watch (2-3-1 = 40.0%)
Carolina Panthers +3.5
St. Louis Rams +4
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 -115 

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time odds, betting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com