12/10/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of SportsInsights.com, with the goal of providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings. Sign-up to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch
Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try SportsInsights.com’sPremium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.
SportsInsights takes an academic view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in our popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books and our recent article comparing the sports marketplace to the financial markets.
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 14
Recapping Last Week
Overall Regular Season (12-10-1 = 54.5%)
The Public had a solid week, going 5-3 in “lopsided-bet games,” which are defined as games having 65% or more bets on one team. The Public rode big names and hot teams such as Green Bay, the New York Giants to victories “against the spread” (ATS), with New Orleans and San Diego disappointing Public bettors. The Public’s 5-3 week increases the Public’s record to 44-46 = 48.9% in lopsided-bet games this season. After a slow start, the Public has performed well in recent weeks. However, this lopsided-bet “trend” has historically been an edge for contrarian sports investors.
Although the Public did well last week, SportsInsights’ contrarian methods also had a decent week, with NFL Squares and Marketwatch going 3-1 in total. Including NFL Best Bets, our methods were 4-4 for the week. SportsInsights’ Betting Against the Public methods in the NFL, includingSquare Plays, Best Bets, and Marketwatch are having a solid season, with Square Plays and NFLMarketWatch producing a combined winning percentage of about 55%. Check out the SportsInsights.com Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.
SportsInsights stresses that sports investors should research profitable methods and then stick with their approach. After both hot or cold streaks, we want to emphasize that bettors should stay the course and bet the same amounts. View Last Week’s Column
What’s the Best Sportsbook to Bet Against the Public?
I get this question all the time from readers. If you are planning on “Betting Against the Public,” BetUSis a must-have sportsbook. BetUS is a “public” book in the sense they get a lot of smaller, public, bettors who love the bonuses, freebies, and marketing. With so many public bettors, BetUS leans their lines and as a result, they consistently offer the best underdog lines and the most generous depositing bonuses. You’ll get an extra 0.5 point to 1.0 point every time you make a bet. Visit BetUS today , it’s where I bet!
NFL Week 14 Sports Marketwatch – Game of the Week
SportsInsights.com takes a unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. SportsInsights.com collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
One of our offshore sportsbook contacts circled this game early in the week, reporting that several of his “sharper” bettors jumped on Detroit early in the week, locking in Detroit +7 at home versus Green Bay. This early sharp action has pushed the “sharper books” down to Detroit +6.5 and even +6 (at CRIS). Some of the “Public books” are still at +7.
SportsInsights’ NFL marketplace indicators reflect the “smart money” action, due to the “reverse line movement.” Although Green Bay is collecting more than 80% of the bets, the opening line of Green Bay -7 has ticked down to Green Bay -6.5. This indicates the existence of “big, smart, money” on Detroit as a live, home dog. We’ll “bet against the Public” and tail the “smart money” in this match-up.
- Detroit has lost five games in a row, so we are “buying at a low.”
- This is an NFC North Divisional Rivalry, so Detroit should be able to “get up” for this game.
- Although Detroit is just 2-10, they have been very competitive in most of their games this season. They have scored almost as many points as they have given up this season.
- In their first divisional game at Green Bay, Detroit lost by just 2 points.
- Note that home dogs have historically been a good bet, especially late in the NFL season, as mentioned in this academic article.
Remember to shop around for the best line, monitor the latest line — and try to grab the key number of seven. Grab Detroit +7 while you can.
Detroit Lions +7 (Bet at Bodog +7)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep your eye on the NFL Marketwatch game of the week and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time odds, betting trends, and winning betting systems picks.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch. Enjoy the games!