NFL Marketwatch - Week 5
10/09/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition  of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!  The column is published every Friday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings.

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro

NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 5                                      

Recapping Last Week

The rain clouds finally parted and the sun came out for a few brief moments, in NFL Week 4, for the sportsbook industry. NFL Week 4 wasn't spectacular, but after the beating the books took the previous three Sundays -- sometimes "breaking even" is a win. All sportsbooks reported increased handle size due to the simple fact that many accounts are flush with cash. Most sportsbooks reported retaining between 0.5%-1.0% of their handle. Tennessee losing big to Jacksonville -- and Cleveland covering -- were big games for the books.

Our Games to Watch bounced back, posting a much-needed 2-1 record.  We've weathered the storm and look to build on the positive momentum. Overall, the Games to Watch are still below .500, going 5-7 for the season -- but on its way back to profitability. We're picking ourselves up off the ground, wiping off the dirt, and sticking to our guns. The biggest mistake most novice sports bettors make is changing their bet amount during winning streaks or losing streaks. Sharp bettors stick to their systems for the entire season and never alter their bet amount. When games start going your way -- and they will -- you want to bet your normal amount to take advantage of the upswing.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 3-3. For the season, that makes the Public an impressive 22-13 = 62.9%. To put this into perspective: for the last 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 65% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%.  Needless to say, the first 4 weeks of the NFL have gone the way of the Square.

View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx

NFL Week 5  – Games to Watch

The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.  We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.

We anticipate Minnesota, Carolina, Pittsburgh, New England, and Indy to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.

Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers

Our offshore contacts circled this game early in the week.  The Carolina Panthers, one of last year's best NFL teams, is yet to win a game this season (0-3).  Bettors are pounding their money down on the Carolina Panthers to "make like their 12-4 record" last year.  Almost 80% of the bets are landing on Carolina this week.  Even so, the line has moved from Washington +4.5 down to Washington +3.5 because "big money" is loading up on the Redskins.  

This kind of sports marketplace action ("reverse line movement") is a good indication of "smart money" at work.  SportsInsights.com's tools indicate that a "Smart Money" play was triggered on Washington by Carib (8-4, +3.34 units).  This matches up with what our offshore contacts have been telling us.  We believe that there is still excellent value in betting the Redskins +4 at Sports Interaction.  Let's "bet against the Public" and go with the "big money."

Washington Redskins +4   (Bet at Sports Interaction  +4 -110)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions

This game is one of the most "lopsided-bet" games of the week.  Even though the Steelers are just 2-2 this season, sports bettors are getting down on the Steelers as if they are the league's powerhouse.  And why not?  This week, the Steelers play the lowly Detroit Lions, a team with one of the league's worst point differentials this season -- and a team that was, umm, winless last year!  

Almost 5 out of every 6 bets are coming down on the Steelers.  Even with such a huge disparity of bets, our sports betting analytics saw a "Smart Money" play triggered on Detroit by Phoenix (11-2 +9.13 units).  The line opened at Detroit +12 at Cris, but is currently +10.5.  We see this "reverse line movement" despite the fact that Detroit's rookie QB Stafford is out for the game.  

Our readers know that we often need "bad" teams to "not be horrible" against "good" teams.  Here, we see a "live dog" in the Detroit Lions getting double-digit points at home -- against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that has given up an average of 20 points a game this season.  Not the "Steel Curtain" of old...  We still see excellent value in betting the Detroit +10.5 at BetUS

Detroit Lions +10.5   (Bet at BetUS  +10.5 -110)

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

One of our favorite sportsbook risk-managers was animated about this match-up.  He said that the New England-Denver game was getting a "LOT of action" -- and that most of his book's smaller bettors were getting down on New England, "after the Patriot's impressive win last week over the Baltimore Ravens."  Even the headlines have been trumpeting, "The Dominating Pats of Old."  However, even with heavy one-way action on New England, there was reverse line movement.  

The line opened at Denver +3.5, but made a huge move to the key football number of +3.  This kind of reverse line movement is a definite indication that "big money" is taking the Denver Broncos at home.  There is still excellent value in betting Denver +3.5 at BetUS.  In addition, SportsInsights.com's Smart Money tool triggered a play on Denver by 5Dimes  (28-22, +4.34 units).  This is a week of several "smart money" plays.  Let's see if the "sharps" can help us to another winning week. 

Denver Broncos +3.5  (Bet at BetUS  +3.5 -110)

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.

Games to Watch (5-7, 41.7%)
Washington Redskins +4    (Bet at Sports Interaction  +4 -110)
Detroit Lions +10.5         (Bet at BetUS  +3.5 -110)
Denver Broncos +3.5   (Bet at BetUS  +3.5 -110)

It should be another exciting opening NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com