NFL Marketwatch - Week 3
9/25/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition  of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!  The column is published every Friday afternoon. Members can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings. Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro membership. You'll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry's most consistently winning information including live odds and betting percentage data from seven online sportsbooks. Visit SportsInsights.com!

NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 3                                      

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 2, like Week 1, went the way of the Square Bettor (bettors who bet primarily favorites). When it rains, it pours, and it poured three and five-team parlays on the sportsbook industry all Sunday afternoon.  The only good news for the sports betting industry is that its only Week 2: plenty of time to win back their money. New England and Tennessee failing to win outright helped the sportsbooks keep the lights on. But once again it was long day of payouts when the doors opened on Monday.

Our Games to Watch laid the big goose egg in NFL Week 2 going 0-3. Ouch!  The silver lining here is that this is a teachable moment. Always remember that one weekend doesn’t make or break a season. Consistent winning means winning over an entire season. Anyone can go 5-0, but very few professional sports bettors can achieve a winning percentage above 55% for an entire season. Readers from last year will note that we started the previous season off slow, going 1-2 in Week 1 and Week 2. We ended the NFL Regular season with a 26-22 (= 54.2%) record. And, over the past four seasons, NFL Marketwatch has connected at a 57.9% win rate. It’s about patience and believing in your research.  

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public had monster weekend, going 7-3. For the season that makes the public 12-7. 

View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx

Now let's get to this week's games.

NFL MarketWatch – Games to Watch

SportsInsights.com takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.  SportsInsights.com collects betting statistics from seven major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time line movement to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities.  We learn which way every game is being bet.  By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

We anticipate Houston, New York Giants, Green Bay, Chicago, and New Orleans to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

Tennessee Titans vs. New York Jets

This match-up is currently the heaviest-bet game of the week.  The Jets, being a New York team, always has a following.  After their huge win over the Patriots last week, the Jets are raising lots of eyebrows -- especially with their new stud QB!  Although the bets are more evenly split than our normal selections, this game has all of the earmarks of the contrarian plays that we love.  Let's take a look at all of the reasons for liking the Titans and betting against the Jets:  

• The Jets made a lot of headlines by beating the Pats.  Let's "sell" the Jets on potential over-valuation after the Jets' big win over the Pats.

• SportsInsights.com's proprietary "Steam Move" analysis tool triggered a play on Tennessee by Betonline (12-5, +5.4 units).

• Tennessee is a well-coached squad that is hungry for a win.  They have been one of the NFL's powerhouses over the past few years.  Let's "buy" the Titans after their 0-2 start.

• The Jets are 2-0 this year, outscoring their opponents 40-16.  Last year the Jets were 9-7.  This is another reason to "sell" the Jets at a recent high.

We love taking the Titans PLUS points.  Make sure you grab the "key football number of 3."

Tennessee Titans +3

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Our sports betting industry contacts circled this game early in the week.  This is a hugely interesting game for the risk managers at the sportsbooks.  The line for the game seems soft, with a relatively small line (about 4 points) -- for the mighty Steelers over the mediocre Bengals.  As a result, the sportsbooks are seeing heavy one-sided betting on Pittsburgh -- with about 70% of all bets (including teasers and parlays) landing on the Steel Curtain.  

Even with the one-sided action on Pittsburgh, the line opened at Pittsburgh -6 at CRIS and quickly moved to -4.  This a solid indicator that early Smart Money is taking the Bengals.  Yes: the Bengals!  In addition to conversations with industry contacts, SportsInsights' Smart Money alerts triggered a play on Cincy by Betonline (11-4 +6.3 units).  In addition, SportsInsights Members received a Steam Move alert from ABC 8-1. +6.1 units on the Bengals.  We'll go with the Smart Money and take the Bengals to surprise the Steelers.

Cincinnati Bengals +4.5

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens

This match-up is seeing heavy one-sided betting action on the Baltimore Ravens.  Three out of four bets are landing on the heavily-favored Ravens.  Our readers know that we sometimes need "very weak" teams to "hang tight" with "very good" teams.  Baltimore is one of the league's elite teams, going 11-5 last year (and tying Tennessee for the best point differential in the NFL regular season).  Cleveland, on the other hand, was a basement dweller at 4-12.  The two teams have started off the 2009 season the way they played last year.  

On paper, this looks like a complete mis-match.  However, the huge point spread is a good equalizer.  In addition, we like the "divisional rivalry" aspect of this game.  Let's "bet against the Public" and take the double-digit points in a tough divisional match-up