NFL Marketwatch - NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends
Edition
2/05/2010 11:01 AM EST
By
Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL
point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the
sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!
The column appears on SportsInsights.com every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL
Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom
line, then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro
Membership. You'll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on
weekdays at 6:25pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average,
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NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 20
Conference Championships
NFL Wild Card Weekend - Games to Watch Playoff Edition
(2-1 = 66.7%)
The NFL Playoffs
are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of
“Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super
Bowl, the most-wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother,
wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the
professional sports bettor – to the Super Bowl commercials: everyone has some
interest in the Super Bowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this
massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs,
odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line.
They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one
side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded
lines.
Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple
online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints
The Super Bowl is upon us -- and what do the sports
marketplace indicators have to say? Early betting leaned towards the Colts,
with about 65% of the bets taking Peyton Manning and his Colts. This pushed the
line from the Colts -3.5 opener all the way to -5.5 at many sports books. Some
books even hit -6. Recent betting has been more "even" -- and brought the
overall betting percentage down to 57% on the Colts, and the line back down to
-4.5. If you shop around, you can still grab the Saints +5 at Bodog, WSEX, and
SIA.
In addition to contrarian value and associated line value on
New Orleans, SportsInsights' proprietary analysis tool triggered two Smart Money
Plays on New Orleans. Our readers know that we like contrarian value as well as
Smart Money indicators. Over the years, this philosophy has proven to give our
Members an edge in "sports investing."
Indianapolis Colt Dwight Freeney is listed as questionable.
He will not practice all week due to a sprained ankle with possible torn
cartilage. Even if he does play on Sunday he should be less than 100%. Freeney
leads the Colts with 13.5 sacks. This will give Drew Brees the extra time
necessary to pick apart the Colts secondary.
The public often focuses on recent performance, and in this
case, performance in the AFC and NFC Championship Games. In particular, the
public remembers the Colts comeback and thrashing of the Jets, starting near the
end of the first half. They also remember how the Saints nearly lost, even with
the Vikings committing a crazy amount of turnovers. Data shows that
performance in the Championship game is relatively uncorrelated to Super Bowl
performance. This is a good opportunity to buy the Saints at a low and
sell the Colts at a relative high -- with data to back things up.
New Orleans Saints +5 (Bet at
Bodog +5 -110)
So, here’s a wrap-up of
SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch - Playoff Edition
for the NFL.
Games to
Watch - Playoff Edition (2-1
66.7%)
New Orleans
Saints +5 (Bet at Bodog +5 -110)
Enjoy the Super
Bowl!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com