NFL Marketwatch - Week 20 - Playoff
Edition
1/22/2010 11:01 AM EST
By
Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL
point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the
sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!
The column appears on SportsInsights.com every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an
advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday
mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the
line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online
sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the "sharps" are
pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems
found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden
value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped
you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try
SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro Membership. You'll receive our Best Bets
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NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 20
Conference Championships
NFL Wild Card Weekend - Games to Watch Playoff Edition
(2-0 = 100.0%)
The NFL Playoffs
are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of
“Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super
Bowl, the most-wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother,
wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the
professional sports bettor – to the Super Bowl commercials: everyone has some
interest in the Super Bowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this
massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs,
odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line.
They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one
side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded
lines.
Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE
wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Public is solidly with Indianapolis, with almost 60% of
the bets taking the playoff-experienced Colts. The line opened at Jets +7, but
the general consensus of bets taking the Colts has pushed the line to Jets
+7.5. If you shop around, you can find Jets +8 at several reputable
sportsbooks. There is some decent value based on the line move from the key
number of +7 all the way to +8. The line has even ticked to Jets +8.5 at one or
two books, but you should be careful about what "vig" you pay at that line.
The Colts almost had a perfect season, before coasting in for
a few meaningless losses to end the season. The Jets were the last team to
claim a playoff spot. Although the Jets quietly eked into the playoffs in the
last game of the regular season, their good defense and solid running game are
helping them make some noise in the playoffs. The NFL's best defense, getting
+8 points, is a solid value.
This match-up is similar to other games where one team has
more of a "powerhouse" reputation. The Colts certainly have the ability to blow
out the Jets. However, historically -- more often than not, the game ends up
being closer than expected. The Jets have the defense and running game to play
with the Colts. Let's "Bet Against the Public" and take the streaking Jets +8
points.
New York Jets +8
So, here’s a wrap-up of
SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch - Playoff Edition
for the NFL.
Games to
Watch - Playoff Edition (2-0
100%)
New York Jets
+8
It should be another exciting NFL
Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest
real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be
back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy
the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com