NFL Marketwatch - Week 17
12/31/2009 11:01
AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL
point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the
sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!
The column appears on SportsInsights.com every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL
Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom
line, then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro
Membership. You'll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on
weekdays at 6:25pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average,
SportsInsights.com's Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every
sport!
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week
17
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 16 was the Christmas gift the sportsbooks have been
waiting for all season. All sportsbooks reported another solid weekend with most
retaining between 4-5% of their handle. The final two weeks of the NFL regular
season always carry a lot of surprises. The old saying holds true this time of
year, "Misery loves company." The role of the spoiler is a powerful motivator
in the final weeks of the season. Teams with nothing to play for come out and
play their best games of the year against teams trying to make the playoffs. The
big decisions for the books were Tampa, a 14-point underdog, beating New
Orleans; Carolina, a 9-point underdog, pounding the New York Giants; and the New
York Jets, which opened as 7-point underdogs, spoiling Indy's undefeated season.
Chicago beating Minnesota on Monday Night Football was the final nail in the
coffin for the betting public. The sportsbook industry looks to continue this
positive momentum into the final Sunday of the regular season. As we mentioned
in last week's column, the last two weeks of the NFL regular season historically
favor betting home underdogs. There is a good chance for the sports betting
industry to close out the regular season on a high note.
Our Games to Watch continued its wining ways, going
2-1, and for the season putting us above .500 and back to even money, 23-21-2,
52.3%. It's been a tough year for betting against the public, but we've stuck to
our guns and are in a good position to capitalize on the Public's tendency to
overvalue road favorites in the last two weeks of the regular season. We'll look
to finish the season strong -- and in the black for our fifth consecutive year.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64%
of the action on one side, the Public took it on the chin, going 3-5. For the
season, that puts the Public in the red with a record of 61-60 = 50.4%. To put
this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the
Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 =
38.1%. Needless to say, the 2009 NFL season has gone the way of the "Square."
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
NFL Week 17 – Games to
Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique
approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports
betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on
SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate Chicago, San Fran, Atlanta, Baltimore, San
Diego, and Tennessee to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to
view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL
game.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
This match-up is seeing a huge, overwhelming landslide of
bets coming down on the Chicago Bears. Almost 90% of bets are taking the Bears,
who are playing the hapless 2-13 Detroit Lions. We see this as a good
opportunity to "Bet Against the Public" -- and grab some good contrarian line
movement. The line opened at Detroit +2.5 and has made a huge move to Detroit
+3, with good "vig/odds" pricing.
In addition to line movement value, we like Detroit for a
number of other reasons, including:
-
Selling Chicago's impressive Monday Night showing.
-
Smart Money play triggered by 5Dimes as alerted by
SportsInsights' Premium Pro feature (47-40, + 8.2 units).
-
In addition, we like home dogs -- particularly at this time
of year.
Detroit Lions +3 +105 (Bet at CRIS +3
+105)
San Francisco 49ers vs. St Louis Rams
This is an interesting match-up that one of our offshore
contacts circled. Our contact said that a few of his sharpest bettors got down
on the St. Louis Rams. Indeed, SportsInsights had a Smart Money play triggered
by Carib (33-16, +12.9 units). The Rams are seeing less than 25% of spread
bets. Note that because many of the games are relatively "meaningless" with
respect to the playoffs, there is less action on the games this week.
The 1-14 Rams are at home -- taking on the 7-8 San Francisco
49ers. As our readers know, we are keen on home dogs near the end of the NFL
season. This is a divisional rivalry -- so we should have a "live" home dog
going, stirred up by the home crowd in the season finale. Finally, if you shop
around, you can now grab extra value by getting 7.5 points -- more than a TD
worth of a point spread.
St Louis Rams +7.5 -105 (Bet at
Bodog +7 -105)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland Raiders
This is a classic Pepto Bismol game. Baltimore is playing
for a playoff spot while Oakland is wrapping up another abysmal season. Public
money has bid up the point spread from Baltimore -10 to -11. This game is one
of the heavier-bet games this week because of the playoff implications and is
seeing 75% of the bets take the heavily-favored Ravens.
We see a lot of value in getting Oakland as +11 home dog.
"Motivation" -- such as playoff positioning -- is often over-valued by the
betting Public. As a result, sportsbooks' odds are also typically inflated.
Professional athletes have pride -- and Oakland does not want to be a doormat.
Oakland, the "home dogs," will be particularly "live" home dogs at this time of
the season. They can give it "their all" for the last game of the season. The
Raiders -- and their home crowd will certainly be into it!
Oakland Raiders +11 (Bet at CRIS +11
-110)
Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks
This game has several interesting storylines. But first,
let's take a closer look at the NFL Marketplace. Despite well over 80% of the
bets coming on Tenn, "Sharp Money" has been coming in on Seattle. We have the
familiar pattern of "reverse line movement" -- with the line moving from Tenn
-5.5 down to -4 -- even with the vast majority of bets taking Tenn. Big money
is getting down on Seattle. There is still plenty of value in getting Seattle
as a +4.5 home dog. Now, let's take a look at some background.
After compiling the NFL's best record last year, Tennessee
started this season by going 0-6. They then won 7 of 8 games to get close to
the playoff picture -- only to lose last week to San Diego. Tennessee's hot
streak got some attention from the fans and media -- and as a result, the Titans
are grabbing a huge 85% of the bets this week. We note, however, that both
teams in this game are now out of the playoff picture. There's a chance,
however, that the Titans will have more of a letdown after their heroic hot
streak ended last week.
Tennessee is coming off a pounding from San Diego last week.
Let's fade the Public, go with the "Sharps" -- and take yet another "home dog."
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 (Bet at
Bodog +4.5 -110)
So, here’s a wrap-up of
SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the
NFL.
Games to Watch (23-21-2,
52.3%)
Detroit Lions +3
+105 (Bet at
CRIS +3 +105)
St Louis Rams +7 -105 (Bet at
Bodog +7 -105)
Oakland Raiders +11 (Bet at CRIS +11
-110)
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 (Bet at
Bodog +4.5 -110)
It should be another exciting NFL
Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for
the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing
tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL
Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel
Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com