NFL Marketwatch - Week 15
12/18/2009 11:01
AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL
point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the
sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!
The column appears on SportsInsights.com every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL
Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom
line, then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro
Membership. You'll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on
weekdays at 6:25pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average,
SportsInsights.com's Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every
sport!
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Units |
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+2.4 |
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+13.5 |
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+12.1 |
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+1.5 |
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+18.4 |
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NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week
15
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 14 was painful for the sportsbooks and our beloved
Games to Watch section. All sportsbooks reported losing between 2-5% of
their handle. The week started off in a promising way as Cleveland beat
Pittsburgh outright on Thursday night football. However, the wheels came off
the bus on Sunday afternoon. Overall, this has been a tough NFL season for the
sportsbook industry. They haven't been able to sustain any positive momentum
from week to week. But the strong survive and we'll look to finish the season
strong.
Our Games to Watch dropped a goose egg, going 0-3,
and for the season we're in the red, 19-20-1, 48.7%. We're picking ourselves up
off the ground, wiping off the dirt, and sticking to our guns. The biggest
mistake most novice sports bettors make is changing their bet amount during
winning streaks or losing streaks. Sharp bettors stick to their systems for the
entire season and never alter their bet amount. When games start going your way,
and they will, you want to bet your normal amount to take advantage of the
upswing.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64%
of the action on one side, the Public had an impressive week, going 5-2. For the
season, that makes the Public a respectable 57-51 = 52.8%. To put this into
perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at
least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless
to say, the 2009 NFL season has gone the way of the "Square."
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
NFL Week 15 – Games to
Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique
approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports
betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on
SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate New England, Arizona, Houston, Minnesota, and
New Your Giants to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to
view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL
game.
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This match-up fits our "contrarian sports investing value" in
several ways. First of all, a lot of "smart money" is coming in on Pittsburgh,
with the line moving from its opener of Pitt -1 to -2 -- even with two-thirds of
the bets taking Green Bay. This kind of reverse line movement means larger bets
-- and bigger money -- is more getting down on the Steelers.
SportsInsights.com's proprietary software has many Smart Money plays being
triggered on Pittsburgh. In addition, our offshore contact, although still
licking his wounds from last weekend, agreed that "his sharps liked the
Steelers."
Another reason to like the Steelers is that we can totally
"buy low and sell high." Pittsburgh is on a downward spiral, losing five games
in a row, while Green Bay has won five in a row. Pittsburgh's "playoff backs"
are against the wall and we expect them to come out smoking at home. The
Steelers went from a 6-2 record to a 6-7 record during this streak, losing five
close games to generally good teams. The Public is overwhelmingly on Green Bay
and this game is one of the heaviest-bet games of the week. Take the contrarian
value and shop for the Pittsburgh -1 line.
Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110 (Bet at SIA -1 -110)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers
The Minnesota Vikings continue to play solid football.
However, we still feel that the media is causing the Vikings to be over-valued
in the NFL Marketplace. With all of the hype about Brett Favre and the 11-2
Vikings, there is bound to be an inflated line. SportsInsights betting
percentages verify that the Public is overwhelmingly on Minnesota. Including
all types of bets, a huge 80% of bets are taking the Vikings minus a chunk of
points (-9). Even more telling is that the "junk bets" such as teasers and
parlays are going the way of the Vikings in a huge way: 85%! The Public loves
these types of "teasers and parlay" bets, showing that this is a particularly
big Public game.
These sports marketplace indicators make us want to "bet
against the Public." At a quick glance, even contrarian bettors will cringe
when they see this play. The mighty 11-2 Vikings against a mediocre 5-8 Carolina
Panther team? We say: take out your holiday eggnog -- and Pepto Bismol -- and
"man-up" with this Sunday Night Football play. The Carolina Panthers have the
sixth best passing defense this year and have scored almost as many points as
they have given up this year. The line has been bid up from its opener of
Carolina +7 all the way up to Carolina +10. That is some huge line value.
Historically, the last few weeks of the NFL regular season has been a good
period to bet on home dogs. Take Carolina plus the huge points at home.
Carolina Panthers +9
Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Seattle Seahawks
This is not the most glamorous games, but the NFL sports
marketplace and SportsInsights' indicators had us keying in on this game. Keep
your Pepto Bismol out because we like the 1-12 Tampa Bay Bucs in this match-up.
About three out of every four bets is taking the Seattle Seahawks. The "junk
bet" indicator that often flashes the "square Public's" views has a huge 81% of
bets on Seattle.
Even with all of the betting activity on Seattle, there is
"reverse line movement", with the line moving its opener of Tampa Bay +8.5 at
CRIS (other books opened at TB +7), all the way down to TB +6.5. That is a huge
line movement through the key football number of 7. The "smart money" really
likes TB to move the line that much. Let's ride on the coattails of the
"sharps" and "bet against the Public." TB has been on a slide, so let's hope to
"buy" them at this recent low. If TB is going to "get off the ground," getting
6.5 points against a mediocre 5-8 Seattle team is a good place to start.
Tampa Bay Bucs +6.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of
SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the
NFL.
Games to Watch (19-20-1,
48.7%)
Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110 (Bet at SIA -1 -110)
Carolina Panthers +9
Tampa Bay
Bucs +6.5
It should be another exciting NFL
Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for
the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing
tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL
Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel
Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com