NFL Marketwatch - Week 13
12/04/2009 11:01
AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL
point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the
sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!
The column appears on SportsInsights.com every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL
Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom
line, then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro
Membership. You'll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on
weekdays at 6:20pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average,
SportsInsights.com's Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every
sport!
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week
13
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 13 was a grind-it-out week for the sportsbooks. A
lot of work and not much to show for it; most sportsbooks reported being flat to
retaining 1% of their handle. There was little to cheer about this Thanksgiving
holiday, as Detroit and Oakland got the stuffing kicked out of them. Sunday
helped to turn things around for the books. Buffalo winning outright against
Miami, coupled with Tampa and Cleveland covering -- helped to break up a lot of
Parlays/Teasers. Look for handles to remain healthy as the Public's pockets are
still flush with cash.
Our Games to Watch was flat for the week, going
0-0-1, and for the season, 17-16-1, 51.5%. We're looking forward to returning
to our winning ways. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over
64% of the action on one side, the Public also recorded a Push, 3-3. For the
season, that still makes the Public an impressive 51-42 = 54.8%. To put this
into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was
at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%.
Needless to say, the first part of the 2009 NFL season has gone the way of the
"Square."
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
NFL Week 13 – Games to
Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique
approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports
betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on
SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate Denver, Houston, New Orleans, San Diego, and
Minnesota to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to
view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL
game.
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Titans have been on a roll, so you would think that they
might become over-valued. This might normally be the case, but not when you are
facing one of the league's two remaining undefeated teams. The Indianapolis
Colts are 11-0 (as are the New Orleans Saints) -- and look like the "class" of
the league.
After an 0-6 start, the Titans have put together a 5-game
winning streak and still have playoff aspirations. They have been doing what
they need to do in order to win games and the NFL "marketplace" shows that the
"sharps" are indeed getting down on the Titans. With bets coming in about 50/50
in this match-up, the point spread moved off of the key number Indy -7 down to
Indy -6.5 -- meaning that some "big money" moved the market.
This is currently the most heavily-bet game of the week -- so
the "market action" in the NFL marketplace is that much more significant. Our
readers know that we love tailing the sharps -- and we look for the Titans to be
a real "live dog" in this match-up. Take the points.
Tennessee Titans +6.5 -110
New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins
This is a true "contrarian" week -- with our Games to
Watch betting against the league's two remaining undefeated teams. Indeed,
a linesman from one of the largest sportsbooks told us this game had more of his
book's Squares taking the Saints -- with junk -- than normal. SportsInsights'
proprietary data shows that 90% of "junk bets" -- such as teasers and parlays --
were coming in on the powerhouse Saints.
With an overwhelming number of bets (both straight
point-spread bets and teasers/parlays) -- we like "selling" New Orleans after
their big Monday Night win over New England. In addition, we like "buying"
Washington on an up-swing. Although last-place Washington is just 3-8, they
play in the tough NFC East Division and have been very competitive. They have
been outscored by just 35 points during the season in total -- and getting
double-digit points at home looks like a good value. The Redskins have the #2
pass defense in the league -- which might help them stay relatively close to the
high-octane Saints offense. Take your indigestion meds and take the points.
Washington Redskins +10 -110 (Bet at SIA +10 -110)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals
A huge 85% of straight bets are taking the visiting Vikings
-4 points against a very solid Arizona Cardinal team. Oh -- and did we say that
the Cardinals are also a first-place team like the Vikings? This is a
"contrarian selection" that combines aspects of value from various sources.
Firstly, we love to "bet against the Public" when there is an overwhelming
number of bets taking one side. This "angle" is particularly strong when
statistics and analysis indicate that the bets should be more evenly
split -- and that the game should be a good one...
Another aspect that we love is "media coverage." All you see
on the ESPN is how Favre is back in his prime. We see Brett Favre doing all
kinds of advertisements -- some of which are actually quite witty. We don't
argue that Minnesota, at 10-1, isn't a powerhouse team. We do feel, however,
that this kind of attention leads to over-valuation. Look for Arizona to give
Minny a heavy dose of reality. How often do you get a first-place team -- at
home -- getting more than a field-goal's worth of points? The Cards have
quietly built a 7-4 record and are undervalued.
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (Bet at BetUS +3.5 -110)
So, here’s a wrap-up of
SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the
NFL.
Games to Watch (17-16-1,
51.5%)
Tennessee Titans +6.5
Washington Redskins
+10 (Bet at SIA +10 -110)
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (Bet at BetUS +3.5 -110)
It should be another exciting NFL
Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for
the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing
tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL
Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel
Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com