NFL Marketwatch - Week 1
9/11/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome back to another exciting and profitable NFL season. This marks the 5th
season of the NFL MarketWatch column.
It's been an amazing run as it's achieving profitability in each of its first
four years. We'd like to personally thank our readers for their support and
suggestions over the last four years. Now let's keep this freight train rolling!
The NFL MarketWatch column
is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, with the goal of
providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL
point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the
sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL
MarketWatch. The column is published every Friday afternoon. Members can
signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
MarketWatch which is emailed out
on Friday mornings. Signup
to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports MarketWatch
Every week Dan Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If you've ever wanted to try
SportsInsights.com's betting systems, NOW is the time. SportsInsights is
currently offering a 50% discount off the entire NFL regular season. If the NFL
MarketWatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line,
then try SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro membership. You'll earn more money by
having full access to the sports betting industry's most consistently winning
information including betting percentage data from seven online sportsbooks. SportsInsights.com
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Now let's get to this week's games.
NFL Marketwatch –
NFL Week 1
Recapping 2008 (26-22 = 54.2%)
We are excited for the NFL
season to kick off into high gear! First, let’s take a look at 2008 and the NFL
MarketWatch’s performance
over the past few seasons. For
the 2008 NFL season, SportsInsights.com Games
to Watch was a solid 26-22 =
54.2%. Over the past four seasons, the NFL
MarketWatch has a posted an
impressive record of 114-83 = 57.9%. Not bad for a free weekly column!
If you have enjoyed the insights this column
provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and
sign up for a membership. Your bankroll will thank you!
NFL Week 1 Sports
MarketWatch – Games to Watch
SportsInsights.com takes a unique approach to sports
betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.
SportsInsights.com collects betting statistics from seven major online
sportsbooks and tracks real-time line movement to pinpoint profitable betting
opportunities. We learn which way every game is being bet. By closely
monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting statistics,
we uncover the most profitable plays.
Atlanta Falcons -4 over Miami Dolphins
The Atlanta Falcons is an interesting play highlighted by certain NFL sports
marketplace indicators. When the lines for the first week of the season went
up, much of the early action was coming in on the Dolphins. The heavy betting
on Miami had SportsInsights' analysts keying in on Atlanta as a potential
"contrarian" bet. However, during the past few days, "sharp money" started
landing on Atlanta. The "betting percentages" have evened out, but the line has
started to tick up to Atlanta -4.5 -- a sure indication of "big money" or "smart
money" taking Atlanta. Betonline.com with a record of 8-2, + 5.4 units
triggered a Smart Money Play on Atlanta -4.
Our readers know that we love to follow the "smart money."
We also like to "bet against the public." This game is unique in that both of
these indicators pointed to the Falcons at different times during the week.
Both Atlanta and Miami had strong seasons last year. Although Miami surprised
everyone last year, they had a relatively easy schedule due to their horrendous
season the year before. Look for the Dolphins to come back to earth a bit this
season. If you shop the line around you'll find a couple of solid sportsbooks
offering Atlanta -3.5 which gets you off the key number 4. We getting down at
Atlanta -3.5 -110 at 5Dimes.
Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (Bet
at 5Dimes -3.5 -110)
Tampa Bay Bucs +6 over Dallas Cowboys
This is currently one of Sunday's most heavily-bet games, with over 80% of the
bets taking the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is always a "public" team and
SportsInsights' "betting percentages" highlight the heavy one-sided action. We
like the value in "betting against the public" and taking the Tampa Bay Bucs, a
very capable home underdog.
The line opened at Dallas -3 but the heavy action on
"America's Team" has moved the point spread a huge 3 points. This huge line
move through several "key football numbers" gives us some nice value. Take
Tampa Bay as a "live home dog" and shop around for the best line you can get.
You can currently get Tampa Bay +6 at nice vig -- but with the continued
pounding of bets down on Dallas, the line could tick up to +6.5 or better.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 -105 (Bet
at Sports Interaction +6 -105)
Washington Redskins +6.5 over New York Giants
The Giants are one of the favorites to get to the Superbowl. On the other hand,
the Redskins are Superbowl long-shots who finished in the basement of the NFC
East. Readers of our NFL
MarketWatch series of newsletters
know that we love to find "sports investing value" by taking teams that look
overmatched. With about 70% of the bets coming down on the Giants, we will "bet
against the Public" and take the Washington Redskins.
- When seeking "contrarian value" -- we like taking underdogs in rivalries
-- and particularly divisional rivalries in the NFL. The Washington
Redskins should be particularly fired up for this divisional match-up on
opening day. As we near game-time, the line may tick up to Washington +7.
For now, we'll take the widely available +6.5.
Washington Redskins +6.5 (Bet
at Sports Interaction +6.5-105)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games
to Watch for NFL Week 1.
Games to Watch (0-0-0)
- Atlanta Falcons -3.5 -110 W
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 -105 L
- Washington Redskins +6.5 -105 W
It should be another exciting
opening NFL Weekend. Keep NFL
Marketwatch picks handy and your
browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for
the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com