NFL Marketwatch – Week 8
10/30/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch! The column is published every Friday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try SportsInsights.com’s Premium Pro Membership.
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 8
Recapping Last Week
The sportsbooks took abother beating in NFL Week 7. The amount of cash the sportsbook industry paid out on Sunday was rivaled only by the Obama stimulus package. Let’s just say there will be a lot of happy kids this Christmas — because Daddy hit a 5-team parlay for $1000. To say there are some crappy NFL teams would be a gross understatement. In the four most-lopsided bet games, the total score for all 4 games was 145-23. It seems that a couple of NFL teams should update their schedules and play on Saturdays against college teams — and not on Sundays against the pros. The only positive for the books was the NY Giants losing outright in the Sunday Night game. That helped stop the massive hemorrhaging all books took on Sunday.
Our Games to Watch slumped, posting a 1-2 record. The swing game was New Orleans vs Miami, but a late interception, returned for a TD, by New Orleans — resulted in New Orleans covering. That was a tough loss to swallow. We shake off that loss off — and look to bounce back in NFL Week 8.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public was an impressive 5-2. For the season, that makes the Public an impressive 34-23 = 59.6%. To put this into perspective: over the past 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 65% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the first half of the NFL season has gone the way of the “Square.”
View Last Week’s Column:
NFL Week 8 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week’s most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate Houston, Minnesota, Indy and the New York Giants to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
I circled this game as soon as the line came out. Minnesota getting +3 looks too easy. And — when something looks too good to be true, it usually is. This game looks like a classic “trap game” for sports bettors. The sportsbooks are looking to bag you into taking Minny and the points. We’re looking to go the other way and take Green Bay.
Although Minnesota has a flashier 6-1 record, the Green Bay Packers are a solid 4-2 — with a better point differential than the Vikings. The Vikings have the flashier names in Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre — but the “Pack is back” with a stingy defense. The Vikings appear slightly over-valued, even after their loss to the Steelers last week, while the Packers are slightly under-valued as they have quietly built their 4-2 record with a good defense and a maturing Aaron Rodgers.
With 3 out of 4 bets landing on the Vikings, let’s “bet against the Public” and grab the Packers as a contrarian value. The Packers are the home team in a bitter divisional rivalry — intensified by Brett Favre visiting his long-time home: Green Bay. Give the points and look for Green Bay to surprise a lot of bettors.
Green Bay Packers -3 -110
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Our offshore contact circled this game because he saw early “Smart money” coming in big on Miami. The bets have evened out a bit later in the week. However, SportsInsights’ proprietary Steam Move “analysis tool” was triggered by the sportsbook CRIS — on Miami +3.5. Note that CRIS triggered steam moves are 29-18, +7.8 units this season.
After a hot 3-0 start, the Jets went 0-3 before beating the lowly Raiders last week. Miami, on the other hand, started the season 0-3 before winning 2 of their last 3 games. Miami had a tough loss last week to a good New Orleans Saints team. These teams look like they are headed in opposite directions. Let’s join the “Smart Money” — and the “Steam move” trigger. Look for the rising Dolphins to take out the sinking Jets.
Miami Dolphins +3.5 (Bet at WSEX +3.5 -110)
Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers
This is our Pepto Bismol game of the week. Sometimes you need bad teams to do good things. Although the Oakland Raiders have won two games this season, they have been outscored by a whopping 115 points in just 7 games! That means they have lost their games by an average of 16 points. Ouch!
On the other hand, San Diego blew out the KC Chiefs last week by 30 points! Let’s “sell” the Chargers at a recent high — after their blowout win last week — and “buy” the Raiders after their 38-0 drubbing by the Jets last week. This game has a large point-spread — that is inflated by both teams’ recent performances — as well as the sportsbooks’ bad taste from “bad teams” the past few weeks.
The line opened at Oakland +13.5 at Pinnacle last Sunday, but moved a huge 3 points within 30 minutes. There looks to be some value in that huge point spread. Time to take a shot of Pepto — and look for a bounce-back for the cellar-dwellers.
Oakland Raiders +16.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (11-10, 52.4%)
Green Bay Packers -3
Miami Dolphins +3.5 (Bet at WSEX +3.5 -110)
Oakland Raiders +16.5
It should be another exciting opening NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!