NFL Marketwatch Week 7 2009-10

NFL Marketwatch – Week 7
10/23/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com


Welcome to this week’s edition  of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!  The column is published every Friday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games.  If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try SportsInsights.com’s Premium Pro Membership.

NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance

Year Record Win Percentage
NFL 2009-10 10-8 55.6%
NFL 2008-09 26-22 54.2%
NFL 2007-08 26-19 57.8%
NFL 2006-07 31-18 63.3%
NFL 2005-06 31-24 56.4%
TOTAL 2005-09 114-83 57.9%

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 7

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 6 continued the sportsbook industry’s positive momentum. Most sportsbooks reported a flat-to-slightly-profitable Sunday, retaining between 0%-1% of their handle. The sportsbooks are still looking for that big bounce-back weekend. Overall, it’s been a lackluster NFL season, so far, for the sportsbooks. The lowly Oakland Raiders — winning outright — was huge for the books in Week 6. That game by itself broke up the majority of Teasers and Parlay action. Chances are — if you placed a +10 point teaser or 3-team parlay, you tied it to Philly. If it wasn’t for Oakland winning “outright” — the sportsbooks would have had a losing Sunday.

Our Games to Watch continued its upward trend, posting a respectable 2-1 record.  We’ve climbed the mountain — and now that we’re above .500, we have decided to stick around to enjoy the view. We look to continue to build on this positive momentum in NFL Week 7. Hopefully, readers have stuck with us and practiced good money management: keeping their bet sizes the same during a winning streak or a losing streak. As we’ve mentioned many times before, changing your bet size — at any time — during the season is one of the biggest mistakes novice sports bettors make. Professional sports bettors start the season with a known bankroll, for example $1000. They then place 3%-4% (sometimes less) of that bankroll per wager. In this example, they should be betting between $30-$40 per bet. This allows the sports bettor to survive a downturn and profit in an upturn. Like it or not, sports betting is a “grind-it-out” process with many ups and downs. Success is measured over the course of an entire season, not a single week.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 3-3. For the season, that makes the Public an impressive 29-21 = 58.0%. To put this into perspective: over the past 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 65% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%.  Needless to say, the first half of the NFL season has gone the way of the “Square.”

View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx

NFL Week 7  – Games to Watch

The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.  We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week’s most profitable betting opportunities.

We anticipate San Diego, Indy, Green Bay, New England, New Orleans, and Philly to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. This is a scary weekend for the sportsbooks as a lot of good teams play weak teams. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.

New York Jets vs Oakland Raiders

SportsInsights.com offers award-winning analytical tools, triggers, and alerts for its Members — and this match-up was highlighted by SportsInsights very early in the week — due to reverse line movement.  The line opened at the Jets -7 on Sunday evening and by Sunday late night/Monday very early morning — the line had moved to Jets -6.5, and then Jets -6.  This line movement occurred, even with a large majority of bets getting down on the Jets — who have been one of the NFL’s best teams early in the season.

We chatted with a head “linesman” at one of the offshore sportsbooks we know — and he indicated that there were some “large bettors” taking the “rejuvenated Raiders.”  Sometimes, it takes the smallest swings in momentum — or confidence — to change the outcome of events.  And in this case — we have a huge double-edged sword in favor of the Oakland Raiders.  After a slow start to the season, Oakland is on an upswing coming off a huge win against a good Philly team.  On the other hand, the Jets are on a downward spiral after their hot start.

Take the points on an Oakland team that is certainly a “live dog.”  If you shop around, you can grab Oakland at +6.5 points at “low vig.”

Oakland Raiders +6.5 -105   (Bet at Sports Interaction  +6.5 -105)

New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins

This match-up falls into the category of contrarian sports investing by “selling an over-valued” team.  And in a big way!  For instance, this is what the Public knows:

  • Last week, Team A and Team B were both undefeated and rated among the league’s best teams.
  • Team A played Team B in a huge play-off preview.
  • Team A beat Team B handily.
  • Team A must be the best team in the league!

In this case, New Orleans is Team A — and the Public is jumping all over the Saints’ bandwagon.  Let’s sell the New Orleans Saints after their blow-out win over the New York Giants (Team B).  Including Teasers and Parlays, about 5 out of every 6 bets are coming down on the New Orleans Saints.  We’ll “bet against the Public” and take Miami as another “live home dog.”  Miami is a solid team — and getting a TD (+7 points) — at home looks like good contrarian value.  Most sportsbooks opened at Saints -7 or -6.5 and quickly moved to -6. However, if you look around — you can still find plenty of +6.5 and even a +7.

Miami Dolphins +7 -105   (Bet at Sports Interaction  +7-105)

Atlanta Falcons vs Dallas Cowboys

Another 4pm game! We’re heavy on the late afternoon games.  It’s not often that the Dallas Cowboys, “America’s Team,” is one of our selections.  Also, it’s not often that we take “favorites.”  We’ll call this our early Halloween pick of the week.  The Public is overwhelmingly on Atlanta, with about 76% of all bets landing on the Falcons.  Even with the vast majority of all bets taking the Falcons, the “smart money” is taking the Cowboys.  The line opened at Dallas -3 and moved to the more generally-available -4 — even with most bets taking Atlanta.

Our readers know that this “reverse line movement” means that “big money” is more than counter-balancing all of the Public’s smaller bets.  Following the lead of the “smart money” and looking for “reverse line movement” has served the NFL Marketwatch well over the past few weeks.  Let’s “bet against the Public” and tag along with the “smart money.”  Shop around and grab the -3.5 that Sports Interaction is posting.

Dallas Cowboys -3.5 -105  (Bet at Sports Interaction  -3.5 -105)

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.

Games to Watch (10-8, 55.6%)
Oakland Raiders  +6.5 -105  
(Bet at Sports Interaction  +6.5 -105)
Miami Dolphins   +7 -105     
(Bet at Sports Interaction  +7-105)
Dallas Cowboys   -3.5 -105   
(Bet at Sports Interaction  -3.5 -105)

It should be another exciting opening NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!