NFL Marketwatch – Week 6
10/16/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch! The column is published every Friday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try SportsInsights.com’s Premium Pro.
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 6
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 5 continued the sportsbook industry’s positive momentum. Most sportsbooks reported a profitable Sunday, retaining between 1%-2% of their handle. Overall, it’s still been a dismal NFL season, so far, for the sportsbooks. However, one line manager put it best, “anytime you’re not paying out on Monday, it’s a good Sunday.” Carolina, Pittsburgh, and New England all failing to cover were big games for the sportsbooks. Miami winning outright on Monday Night ensured a profitable weekend for the books.
Our Games to Watch had a breakout weekend, posting a much-needed 3-0 record. We’ve climbed the mountain and are now above .500. We look to build on this positive momentum in NFL Week 6. Hopefully, readers have stuck with us and practiced good money management: keeping their bet sizes the same during a winning streak or a losing streak. As we’ve mentioned many times before, changing your bet size — at any time — during the season is one of the biggest mistakes novice sports bettors make. Professional sports bettors start the season with a known bankroll, for example $1000. They then place 3%-4% (sometimes less) of that bankroll per wager. In this example, they should be betting between $30-$40 per bet. This allows the sports bettor to survive a downturn and profit in an upturn. Like it or not, sports betting is a “grind-it-out” process with many ups and downs. Success is measured over the course of an entire season, not a single week.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 4-5. For the season, that makes the Public an impressive 26-18 = 59.1%. To put this into perspective: for the last 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 65% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the start of the NFL has gone the way of the Square.
View Last Week’s Column:
NFL Week 6 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week’s most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate Minnesota, New York Giants, Philly, and anyone playing Tampa Bay (!!) to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Redskins
This is definitely not the “Game of the Week.” In this match-up, we have two underperforming teams (with a combined 2-8 record) going head-to-head. However, one of our risk-manager contacts circled this game early in the week. He said that the “Smart Money” is coming in big on Washington. CRIS and Olympic both opened with Washington -5 and quickly moved to Washington -6, with a lot of books moving to -6.5.
Most books have now moved to Washington -6.5 — but our readers know that we like joining the Smart Money. About 70% of the bets are landing on KC, so we also get “contrarian value” by “Betting Against the Public.” We’re selling on KC’s positive showing last week against Dallas — and buying Washington on their tough loss to Carolina. We don’t often “give points” and take the favorite, but many of the sports marketplace indicators that we study point to “value” in this match-up. Give the points! If you shop around, you can get Washington -6 -110 at plenty of books.
Washington Redskins -6 -110 (Bet at BetOnline -6 -110)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings
SportsInsights.com has developed a series of award-winning tools for its Members. For many sports, one of SportsInsights’ most powerful tools — is our Smart Money triggers. We tabulate the performance for Smart Money Plays for each of the sportsbooks we follow. This week, we have “Smart Money” plays coming in on Baltimore from Phoenix (12-2 +10units) and Carib Sports (11-4, +6.24). Please note how effective these sportsbooks’ predictions have been this season.
In particular, “Smart Money” triggers means that we have “Reverse Line Movement.” In this case, with the majority of bets (about 70%) coming in on Minny — the line has moved from Minny -3 to -2.5 at some books. Grab the huge “key number” of +3 before it moves to +2.5 everywhere. This should be a great game, and getting the +3 is a solid value.
Baltimore Ravens +3 -110 (Bet at Sports Interaction +3 -110)
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
The public is betting this game like they know the score. The oddsmakers have placed a juicy line for bettors — by making the NY Giants a +3 underdog! Both the Giants (5-0) and Saints (4-0) are undefeated this season. However, the Giants have been recent Superbowl Champs — and have been very solid for several years now. To many bettors, this is a soft line — so they are piling onto the Giant bandwagon. Including “Teasers and Parlays” — almost 3 out of every 4 bets are getting down on the visiting Giants. To us, as “contrarian sports investors” — this means that there is good value going with New Orleans.
New Orleans is well-coached team coming off a bye-week. The Saints will be well-rested and ready for the New York Giants. In addition, SportsInsights’ Smart Money triggers came in on New Orleans from Pinnacle (9-3, +6.1) and Matchbook (17-14, +2.1 units). Take the home team in this match-up, which promises to be a playoff preview.
New Orleans -3 (Bet at BetUS -3 -120)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
It should be another exciting opening NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!