NFL Marketwatch – Week 2
9/18/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch! The column is published every Friday afternoon. Members can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings. Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try SportsInsights.com’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most consistently winning information including live odds and betting percentage data from seven online sportsbooks. Visit SportsInsights.com!
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 2
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 1 went the way of the Square Better (bettors who bet primarily favorites) with favorites going 9-4. The 1 pm games started the slide for the sportsbooks with lots of 3-team parlays coming home to roost. The 4pm games and Sunday Night game put the final nail in the coffin for the books. Needless to say, it was a long day of payouts come Monday morning. The only saving grace for the sportsbooks was the Monday Night Football double header. Both match-ups featured heavy one-way action on big favorites. These were two of the biggest decisions of the week and went the way of sportsbooks. It helped a lot of books erase big losses incurred on Sunday.
Our Games to Watch started the season off posting a respectable 2-1 record. But always remember that one weekend doesn’t make or break a season. Consistent winning means winning over an entire season. Anyone can go 5-0 but very few professional sports bettors can achieve a winning percentage above 55% for an entire season. Readers from last year will note that we started the previous season off slow, going 1-2 in Week 1 and Week 2. We ended the NFL Regular season with a 26-22 (= 54.2%) record. It’s about patience and believing in your research.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public had a respectable opening weekend, going 5-4. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis started on a positive note, posting a 2-1 record. View Last Week’s Column
Now let’s get to this week’s games.
NFL Week 2 NFL MarketWatch – Games to Watch
SportsInsights.com takes a unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. SportsInsights.com collects betting statistics from seven major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time line movement to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. We learn which way every game is being bet. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.
We anticipate Tennessee, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Regular readers of the NFL Marketwatch know you need an iron stomach to follow our plays. This game is a prime example of our Pepto-Bismol-type of play. Minnesota ran up 34 points in their opener, with Brett Favre completing 14 of 21 passes and Adrian Peterson rushing for 180 yards and 3 TDs. It doesn’t get much better than that for Vikings fans, right? Next up, the Vikings get a Detroit team that got clobbered 45-27 by the New Orleans Saints.
Detroit was a woeful 0-16 last year. They continued their woefulness this year, giving up the league’s most points (45) and yards (515) in Week 1. The Minnesota Vikings — and many bettors — are licking their chops. But this is where “we,” as contrarian sports investors, come in. When we see a match-up that looks like a “no-brainer” — there is often contrarian value “to be had.” We don’t necessarily see Detroit winning the game outright. However, the point spread is a huge equalizer. And in this case, we believe that Detroit is a good, live underdog. We especially like Detroit because of these factors:
- Home underdog getting double-digit points.
- Divisional rivalries always stir the players up.
One of our contacts at an offshore sportsbook said that he circled this game because of the heavy one-way action on Minnesota, particularly on the “junk bets” like teasers and parlays. Almost 90% of teasers and parlays are coming in on Minny. The line opened at Detroit +9, but with almost 80% of “spread” bets (and 90% of teasers/parlays) landing on the heavily-favored Vikings, the line has moved up to Detroit +10, with a +10.5 available at Bodog. Grab it!
Detroit Lions +10 (Bet at BetUS +10 -110)
New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This game has two underlying themes that point to value on the Philadelphia Eagles. Firstly, New Orleans ran up 45 points in blowing out Detroit last week, 45-27. The game wasn’t even that close, with the Saints scoring 28 points in the first half of the game. Drew Brees threw for a huge six TDs, four in that big first half. We’ll “sell” New Orleans after the “high” of their huge win last week.
On the other hand, Philly may be undervalued a bit because of the injury to their QB, Donovan McNabb. McNabb is questionable for the game, but the “sport marketplace” typically over- emphasizes the impact of injuries. Because fans are focusing on the McNabb injury — as well as New Orleans’ big win last week — about 80% of the bets are landing on New Orleans. Our readers know that we love to “bet against the Public.” We’ll take the undervalued Eagles at home against an overvalued Saints team.
Philadelphia Eagles +1 +100 (Bet at Pinnacle +1 +100)
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Diego Chargers
In a match-up of two playoff teams from a year ago, three out of every four bets are landing on the powerhouse Baltimore Ravens. This might not be too surprising to some, because Baltimore is known for their great defenses over the past few years. In addition, Baltimore was one of the NFL’s true powerhouses last year, tied with Tennessee for the best point differential at +141. Some people will note that although San Diego made the playoffs, their regular season record was just 8-8.
Even so, San Diego had a very respectable +92 net points in 2008. With an overwhelming number of bets taking the Baltimore Ravens, the line has moved a huge point from the key numbers of San Diego -4 to San Diego -3. We like “betting against the Public” and taking San Diego with that huge one-point live value. In addition, we note that Baltimore struggled against the lowly KC Chiefs last week, needing 21 fourth quarter points to pull away from the Chiefs. Go Chargers!
- San Diego Chargers -3 -103 (Bet at Matchbook -3 -102)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
It should be another exciting opening NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!