NFL Week 8 – Early Moves
10/24/2008 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 8
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 7 was good to the sportsbooks. All sportsbooks reported a big Sunday, with most retaining between 2%-4% of their handle. Dallas getting mauled by St. Louis, one of the NFL’s worst teams, (and yes our Games to Watch feature was on the losing end) broke up a lot of parlays and teasers. Carolina winning big over New Orleans — and Green Bay embarrassing Indy, were huge games for the books. Until this Sunday, the pattern had been if the sportsbooks won the 1pm’s and 4pm’s, they lost the late game. This didn’t hold true last Sunday. The Public loaded up on Tampa Bay in the late game, looking to bet their way out of a deep hole. Tampa Bay failed to cover plus the game went under…an excellent result for the sportsbooks.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public continued its losing ways, going 3-7, making the Public 24-34 = 41.4% for the season. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continues its positive momentum, posting a 2-1 record, making it 12-8-1 = 60.0% for the season.
View Last Week’s Column:
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NFL WEEK 7
We anticipate the Baltimore, Buffalo, New England, and Washington to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 7 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (12-8 = 60.0%)
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
One of our offshore contacts had this game circled early in the week. Early Sharp money on Miami pushed the line from Miami +2 down to Miami +1 — even with the Public all over first-place Buffalo. With almost 85% of all bets coming in on Buffalo, you would think someone had Monday’s sports page already!
In addition to “Betting Against the Public” and taking the same side as “Sharps” — we like this game for a variety of other reasons:
- Miami is a home dog — and is definitely a “live dog” in a game that is expected to be close.
- This is a game between two divisional rivals.
- We’ll sell Buffalo at a “high” after last week’s convincing 23-14 win over a solid San Diego squad.
- We’ll buy Miami at a “low” after a 2 touchdown loss to Baltimore.
Miami Dolphins +1.5 SIA
St. Louis Rams vs New England
The Public is jumping on the Patriot bandwagon again — after their impressive performance on Monday Night Football (MNF) against Denver. More than 3 out of every 4 bets are coming in on the Patriots. The line opened at NE -7 and -7.5 — but the steady pounding of bets on the Pats has started to make the line rise.
We’ll “Bet Against the Public” and sell the Pats at a recent high after their big MNF win. The Rams should have some renewed confidence after their win over Dallas last week. The line for this game is rising, so shop around for the best line you can get. Currently, St. Louis +7.5 at “plus vig” is widely available with some +9′s around but at “expensive negative vig.”
St. Louis Rams +7.5
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
This is a classic “new kid in town” versus the “old gunslinger” match-up. Tennessee brings the league’s only undefeated record into this game: a sparkling 6-0 record. Indy has been struggling and limps in at 3-3. The Colts have been showing signs of their championship form, but they lost again last week. The Public is leaning to the Titans, with about 60% of the bets taking Tennessee.
The line opened at Tennessee -3.5 but Public money has moved the line to the key number of Tenn -4. We like this extra value in a key divisional game. How often do you get a team like the Colts plus more than a field goal? We’ll take the points on the “old gunslinger” and buy an underperforming Indy team that suffered a big loss last week versus Green Bay.
Indianapolis Colts +4
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:
Games to Watch (12-8 = 60.0%)
- Miami Dolphins +1.5
- St. Louis Rams +7.5
- Indianapolis Colts +4
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.
Enjoy the games!
- Daniel Fabrizio