NFL Week 6 – Early Moves
10/10/2008 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 6
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 5 was a “grind-it-Sunday” for the sportsbook industry. “At the end of the day, we had little to show for a lot of hard work,” reported JC, head lineman at Skybook. Most sportsbooks reported flat earnings for Sunday, some retaining 1%-2% and some losing 1%-2% of their handle. For the second straight week, teams the sportsbooks “needed big” — fell apart in the 4th quarter. Two weeks ago, it was Detroit and Oakland imploding. Last week it was Houston’s epic 4th quarter collapse in which they gave up 21 points in what seems like 1 minute. Let’s just say sometimes you eat the bull and sometimes the bull eats you.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went a lackluster 4-4, making the Public 18-23 for the season. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis stumbled again, going 1-2, making it 8-7 = 53.3% for the season… We were 1 quarter from going 2-1. We’ll hope the pigskin bounces our way this week. But we let’s put it behind us and focus on the week at hand.
View Last Week’s Column:
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NFL WEEK 6
We anticipate Chicago, Carolina, and Dallas to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 6 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (8-7 = 53.3%)
209 Carolina Panthers versus 210 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Public is overwhelmingly on the Carolina Panthers — with about 75% of all bets are landing on the Panthers. We believe the true line should be Tampa Bay -3, but Carolina’s big 34-0 win last week has caused the sportsbooks to open at TB -1.5. We like the fact the Public is overwhelmingly on Carolina and the fact that we will only lay 1 point for a playoff caliber squad like Tampa Bay, playing at home.
We also like this game because it is a tough divisional game, with victor taking first place in the NFC South. TB took a tough loss last week while Carolina had a blowout win. Let’s “buy low, and sell high” and grab the home value.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1
213 Chicago Bears versus 214 Atlanta Falcons
The Public is all over the Bears in this match-up. And, why not? This is the vaunted Chicago Bear franchise, that has seen flashes of its former greatness in recent years (13-3 in 2006; and among the league leaders in point differential this season at +41 net points [128 PF - 87 PA]). “Da Bears” are playing the Atlanta Falcons, perennial league doormats (4-12 last season).
This kind of match-up seems “too easy” and this is the type of game where we can often find value. We’ll “bet against the public” and make a play On Atlanta. The overwhelming Public bets on Chicago have pushed this line to the key number of 3, creating some nice value. We’re buying a much-improved Atlanta squad at +3, at home. Take the “live home dog” to make some noise.
Atlanta Falcons +3
217 St. Louis Rams versus 218 Washington Redskins
Take your Tums! Our readers know that we like to take the most painful-looking game on the board. These games, where nobody in their right minds would want to take the “ugly duckling” — often have solid contrarian value. When it comes to sports investing, we’ll let everybody else admire “Cinderella” while we take a good value.
In addition, our sports betting contacts circled this game because early “Sharp” action pushed the line back a huge 1 to 1.5 points through the key number of 14 from St. Louis +15 (at Cris) down to +13.5. This occurred even though a huge 75% of bets are on the favored Redskins. We like the fact that “big, smart money” is on the big underdog Rams.
We’ll Sell on Washington’s big win over Dallas. We also get to buy the value on a beaten-down St. Louis Ram team. Based on the constant pounding of bets on Washington, you might be able to get St. Louis + 2 TDs.
St. Louis Rams +13.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:
Games to Watch (8-7 = 53.3%)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1
- Atlanta Falcons +3
- St. Louis Rams +13.5
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.
Enjoy the games!
- Daniel Fabrizio