Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 4
9/28/2007 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 4
Recapping Last Week
It was another tough weekend for the sportsbook industry. Anytime four games land on a Push it’ll be a long day of payouts on Monday. The reason is that the majority of wagers placed at sportsbook are on teasers and parlays. When a game lands on a Push –
or close to the Spread – both sides of a Teaser win – the guy who teased the “away” team and the guy who teased the “home” team. Anyone who used those 4 games in their Teaser card, regardless of which side they bet, has a winner.
Favorites posted a record 6-5 with 4 Pushes. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public posted another losing weekend, going 3-4-3. For the season that makes the Public 12-17-3. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continued its downward trend and posted a losing weekend going 1-2. Hopefully readers were able to get down on Seattle -3, which resulted in a Push. Unfortunately, at the time we published last week’s Sports Marketwatch there were only one or two sportsbooks offering Seattle -3 so we decided to use Seattle -3.5 for sake of consistency in our article. A sharp buyer would have snatched up Seattle -3 – which was offered on Sunday by a lot of reputable sportsbooks. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 3-6.
View Last Week’s Column
Looking Ahead to this Week
We anticipate Houston, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and New England to be the most “lopsided-bet” teams of the week. Look for handle sizes to remain strong as betting accounts are still flush with profits from Week 1 and 3. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 4 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Houston Texans vs Atlanta Falcons
Looking at the betting lines this week, there is one glaring “soft line” just begging the Public to hammer one side. Houston favored by only 3 points over a struggling Atlanta team? If you’re saying to yourself, that’s just too easy…, take the other side. The sportsbook industry makes a living from these types of “soft line” games.
There are multiple indicators pointing to value on Atlanta +3.
• Soft Line
• Home Dog
• The Public overwhelmingly on Houston, over 90% on Houston
• Buying on bad news – Atlanta underperforming
Atlanta played a solid game last Sunday against Carolina but they fell apart defensively in the 4th quarter when it matters most. They are a good example of just how small the line is that separates a “W” from an “L” in the NFL. For Atlanta, a couple of missed field goals and a few bad defensive plays are the difference between a possible 2-1 record versus their current 0-3. I’m taking the value in a Home Dog +3, plus the fact that the Public is betting the other side – as if they know the score. Atlanta is a team that is improving every week. Their offense is finally showing life. Coach Petrino will have Atlanta prepared to win their first game of the season and his career.
Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
We often look for value in several ways. In this match-up, some books opened at Baltimore -4.5. Sharps immediately jumped on Cleveland, driving the line to -4 – even with the majority of bets coming in on the Ravens.
We always like to be on the side of the “sharps” – and the sportsbooks. We also see value in a “Home Dog” getting more than a field goal. Baltimore struggled last week in a last second field goal win over a mediocre Arizona squad. Last week, Cleveland lost a heartbreaker by 2 points. With so many games in the NFL often settled by a field goal, we like the Browns and the points.
A Divisional match-up adds even more to the fire. We’ll join the sharps, sportsbooks and look for the Browns to burn the Ravens.
Cleveland Browns +4
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
Both the Eagles and the Giants finally showed some signs of life last week. The New York Giants showed they can still play defense and stop a team when it matters. Last week they shut down a hot Washington Redskins team.
However, the Eagles, and namely – Donovan McNabb – made many more headlines, beating an undefeated Detroit Lion team by five TDs. The Eagles won 56-21, scoring a huge 42 points in the first half. McNabb lit up the board, passing for almost 300 yards in the first half. We are looking to sell on a “high.” Here are some other notes on the game:
• Home Dog getting a field goal
• Divisional Rivalry
• Sharp Money on NYG caused the line to move from -3 to -2.5 at some books
• Brian Westbrook, Abdominal Injury, is iffy for the game. He’s the spark plug of Eagles offense.
New York Giants +3
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 4.
Games to Watch (3-6)
Atlanta Falcons +3
Cleveland Browns +4
New York Giants +3
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!