Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL
Week 2
9/14/2007 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome
to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder
of SportsInsights.com, gives
sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever
wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an
all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly
with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest
sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.
Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 2
Recapping Last
Week
NFL Week 1 went the way of the Square bettor with favorites
going 9-2. It appeared some teams could have used an extra week of pre-season.
The 1pm games started the slide for the sportsbooks, but Denver and Jacksonville
failing to cover and a lot of blow outs helped break up teasers and parlay
action. The 4pm games and late game put the nail in the coffin. It was an ugly
day of payouts for the sportsbooks when they opened the doors on
Monday.
Our Games to Watch started the season off posting a big goose
egg, going 0-3. Always remember that one weekend doesn’t make or break a season.
Consistent winning means winning over an entire season. Anyone can go 5-0 but
very few professional sports bettors can achieve a winning percentage above 55%
for an entire season. Readers from last year will note that we started the
season off slow, going 1-2 in week 1 and week 2. We ended the NFL Regulars
season with a (31-18 = 63.3%) record. It’s about patience and believing in your
research.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65%
of the action on one side, the public had a monster weekend, 7-2.
SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis fell flat on its face going
0-3.
This Week’s NFL Action
This week, we’re hoping that
“our dogs” are awake and ready for some action. In our last article, we
mentioned four major criteria we use to judge line value. These factors are so
important to getting an edge that we wanted to highlight them again:
•
Public overwhelmingly on one side
• Home dog
• Drastic line movement
caused by Public money
• Negative press
We anticipate Indianapolis,
New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Cincinnati to be the most “lopsided-bet”
games of the week. Each one of these teams is receiving well over 90% of the
bets placed. Visit SportsInsights.com to view live wagering statistics from
multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Sports Marketwatch – Games to
Watch
Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins
I
circled this game because it appears to the untrained eye to be a soft line,
which is causing the early Public money to pound Dallas. The line has moved from
Dallas -3 to -4. Every week there are typically 2 or 3 games with what appear to
be soft lines. These are the games the sportsbooks make a killing on. If it
looks too easy, we always take the other side. The odds makers in Vegas know
what they are doing. The line should be-3 but Square money has pushed the line
to -4 giving the value better an excellent Home Dog play on Miami +4.
Dallas was already an early season Public favorite. Their manhandling of
the New York Giants in week 1 only added fuel to fire. Watching the highlights
and listening to the media machine, you’d hear nothing but “America’s Team” is
back.
The sportsbook I spoke with took a massive amount of Square money
on Dallas as soon as they posted a line. They quickly retreated to -3.5, with a
lot of Square sportsbooks shading the line to -4. Most of the linemen I spoke
with believed they could have posted -6 or even -7 and still received a lot of
Dallas action.
Currently, an amazing 90%-94% of the bets are coming in
on Dallas. The Public is betting this game like they know the scores.
Unfortunately, I’m still waiting for my advance copy of Monday’s sports section.
We’re taking the +4 value on a Home Dog the Public money has given us.
Miami +4
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee
Titans
Indy looked great against New Orleans in week 1. Indy will
continue to be a huge Public team until someone finds a game plan to beat them.
We like the Tennessee Titans for the same reasons we’re taking the Miami
Dolphins.
• Public overwhelmingly on Indy (85%-90%)
• Home dog
(+7.5)
• Drastic line movement caused by Public money (-7 to -7.5)
The
early Public action has made Tennessee a tremendous Home Dog value getting +7.5.
Tennessee picked up right where they left off last season. They showed a lot of
grit going into Jacksonville and coming out with a win. Early Public money has
pushed the line from -7 to -7.5 at a lot Square sportsbook most notably
Bodog.com. We’re taking Tennessee +7.5 and looking for our Home Dogs to start
barking!
Tennessee +7.5
(NewBodog.com)
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland
Browns
The question is not “how good is Cincy” but rather “how
bad is Cleveland?” Frequent readers of this column know that every week you need
bad teams to do good things. It sounds easy enough but try putting your money
where your mouth is. Who in their right mind would put money on Cleveland this
week…no matter what line they put on the game? But it is this psychological bias
that makes Cleveland an attractive play. It’s about identifying value. Over the
course of an entire season, continually getting an extra half point such as +7
instead of +6.5 – will add an extra few points to your winning percentage. This
can be the difference between long-term winning and losing.
I’m taking
Cleveland +7 at home for the exact reason everyone is betting against them.
Cleveland +7
So, here’s a wrap-up of
SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week
2.
Games to Watch (0-3)
Miami +4
Tennessee
+7.5
Cleveland +7
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep
Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com
for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com