Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL
Week 13
11/30/2007 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome
to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio,
founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans
unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an
all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly
with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest
sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.
Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 13
Recapping Last
Week
For first time in over two-and-a-half months the Public came out
on top, big. Most sportsbooks reported losing between 3-5% of their handle.
Minnesota and San Fran, both big underdogs, winning outright, kept the
sportsbook industry from getting crushed. Those games broke up a lot of parlays
and teasers. But the Public still managed to hit a large amount of 3, 4, 5 Team
Parlays + Teasers, which translates into a long day of payouts for the
sportsbooks on Monday.
The Public posted their first winning Sunday in
over ten weeks. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of
the action on one side, the Public went an impressive 6-3. For the season that
makes the Public 40-47-8 = 45.9%. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis hit
a bump in the road, going 0-1 last weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to
Watch column 21-11-2 = 65.6%.
Looking Ahead
to this Week
Look for handle sizes to remain strong in NFL Week 13 as
the Public is flush with winnings from the previous week. Marquee match-ups like
the Thursday Night football game between Green Bay vs Dallas – as well as Indy
vs Jacksonville, Tampa vs New Orleans will make this another exciting week in
the NFL. We anticipate San Diego, Cleveland, Denver, and New England to be the
most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE
wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 13
Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
San Diego Chargers
vs Kansas City Chiefs
This game has all the makings of a “classic
value play” on a “home dog.” The public is on the first-place Chargers in a huge
way, with 9 out of 10 bets coming in on San Diego. There appears to be a soft
line, with the line opening at just SD -4 against a 4-7 (win-loss) KC Chief
team.
We see value in this game, with the line moving through some
decent “key” numbers, from KC +4 to +6. We like the home dog in a divisional
rivalry – and note that home dogs have historically performed well near the end
of the season. Look for the divisional race to tighten up as KC shows up to
play.
Kansas City Chiefs +6
Tampa Bay Bucs
vs New Orleans Saints
Our insiders at the sportsbooks report
“sharps” buying up the New Orlean Saints, pushing the line from NO -3 (big key
number!) to NO -3.5 with the bets coming in fairly evenly on both sides. As our
readers know, we like being on the same side as the “smart money.” We also like
the Saints at home in this match-up.
An additional reason to like this
play is that Tampa Bay QB Garcia is not projected to play. He’s the glue that
holds the TB Buc offense together – so we’ll lay the points and take the
Saints.
New Orleans Saints -3.5
Detroit Lions
vs Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings blew out a solid NY
Giant team last week by a 41-17 score. A two-game winning streak for the
Vikings, combined with a three-game losing streak by the Lions makes us want to
buy the Lions at a low, and sell the Vikings at a high. We see good “contrarian
value.”
This is a big divisional match-up with playoff implications. We
see Detroit bouncing back and Minny coming back to the ground. Take the Detroit
Lions plus the huge (more than a FG!) 4 points.
Detroit Lions
+4
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this
week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 13.
Games to Watch
(21-11-2)
Kansas City Chiefs +6
New Orleans Saints -3.5
Detroit
Lions +4
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks
handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the
latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com