Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 12
11/22/2006 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace! Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, BetUs.com, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.
Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 12
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 11 witnessed a drop in overall handle for most sportsbooks, but nonetheless the sportsbook industry just barely managed to post their ninth consecutive profitable Sunday. “Dallas breaking up 7pt teasers was nice. But with Pittsburgh/Cleveland and Washington/Tampa Bay landing on a push, all teasers hit on those games. There were a bunch of other games that landed close to the number, so a lot of junk (teasers) hit,” reports 5Dimes line manager Louie.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public posted their NINTH consecutive losing weekend, going 2-4-1. Over the last 9 weeks, the Public has posted a dismal 18-49-1 record…ouch! SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis hit its first speed bump since NFL Week 2, going 1-2. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 20-13 = 61%.
View last week’s column. *Source: SportsInsights.com
Looking Ahead to this Week
We anticipate Denver, Cincinnati, Indy and San Diego to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to dramatically increase due to the three nationally televised Turkey Day games. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from five online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 12 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
How could we pass up wagering on the inaugural NFL Network game? We circled this game because of the peculiar line movement going against the Pubic betting percentages. This is a tell-tail sign of Smart Action. CRIS opened with Denver -1 and saw a steady stream of Public money on Denver. We have reports from multiple sportsbooks taking heavy Sharp Action on KC +1, pushing the line to KC -1 at most every shop. KC is a well-coached and balanced team that showed a lot of heart last weekend when they slept-walked through 3 ½ quarters against Oakland but managed to rally behind returning starter QB Trent Green. After a long day of eating and drinking we plan to eat our third dessert and put our money with the Sharps.
Kansas City +1
Philadelphia Eagles vs Indianapolis Colts
Frequent reads of this column know we buy on bad news. This is the case with the Philadelphia Eagles. The media can’t stop talking about Eagles QB McNabb being out for the season and consequently the Eagles season is over. The last time I checked, football is a TEAM game. We believe the odds makers have shaded this line 3-4pts, expecting a huge influx of Public money on Indy. The game opened at Indy -11.5 but early Sharp Action bought this game back to 9.5. We still feel there is a good 2.5pts of shade. We’re taking +9.5 and expecting a well-coached Eagles team to elevate their play in all facets to compensate for the loss of McNabb.
Philadelphia Eagles + 9.5
Oakland Raiders vs San Diego Chargers
Time to break out the bottle of Pepto! If you read the “Games to Watch” column frequently, you also know you need an iron stomach. We typically need bad teams to do good things. We look to exploit the human tendency to bet on winners and last week’s scores. The sports media has been pumping out story after story about San Diego and the LT scoring machine. We believe the odds makers have shaded this line 3pts towards San Diego. Let’s face it: the odds makers could have put 14.5 or 16 and the Public would still be all over San Diego. Oakland has shown flashes of turning it around. We taking a big shot of Pepto and Oakland +13.5
Oakland Raiders +13.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 12.
Games to Watch (20-13)
Kansas City Chiefs +1
Philadelphia Eagles +9.5
Oakland Raiders +13.5
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!