Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL
Week 9
11/03/2006 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the
Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com gives sports fans
unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all
access pass with Sports Marketplace! Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he
speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, BetUs.com, and
Oasis
about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.
Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 9
Recapping Last
Week
NFL Week 8 continued the sportsbook industry’s string of
profitable Sundays, with most sportsbooks retaining 2%-3% of their handle. The
biggest game of the day was Oakland stunning Pittsburgh. “Pittsburgh losing
outright against arguably the worst team in the NFL was huge. Oakland,
Cleveland, and Baltimore winning outright broke up a lot of junk
(parlay/teasers),” explained 5Dimes.com line manager Lou. “Every week it comes
down to a couple of horrible teams coming up big.” Since Week 2, this has been
the “year of the sportsbooks.” Every sportsbook we spoke with stated that
October’s revenue eclipsed all of last season’s football revenue. Now that’s a
monster month!
The Public had another down weekend. SportsInsights.com
analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public
posted their sixth consecutive losing weekend, going 3-4. Over the last 6 weeks,
the Public has posted a dismal 15-31 record…ouch! SportsInsights.com Games to
Watch analysis continues to roll, posting another profitable weekend, going 2-1.
Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 15-9 = 63%.
View
last week’s column. *Source:
SportsInsights.com
Looking Ahead to this Week
We anticipate Chicago, San Diego, Dallas, and the New York Giants to be the
most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to decrease, as the
Public has no idea where to turn. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering
statistics from five online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 9 Sports
Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Tennessee Titans vs
Jacksonville Jaguars
The underlining theme every week is to
identify Value. Tennessee is coming off its first back-to-back win since Dec
2003. They believe they can win behind rookie QB Vince Young. The media has been
swarming around Jacksonville’s QB controversy. Is Garrad or Leftwich the man?
This kind of negative attention will undoubtedly effect team moral and play on
Sunday. We believe a much-improved and better-prepared Tennessee team will give
Jacksonville all they can handle.
CRIS opened with Jacksonville -10 and
quickly retreated to -9.5 after they received a good deal of early Sharp money
on Tennessee +10. Most sportsbooks opened at -9 and -9.5 and have seen steady
two-way Public action. There are plenty of +10 still on the board. Our money is
with the early Sharp action at Tenn +10 and an explosive Vance Young.
Tennessee Titians +10
Dallas Cowboys vs
Washington Redskins
We circled this game for the Home Dog value.
Washington getting +3 at Home against a Dallas team led by Tony “The Flash”
Romo? Yes, Romo had an impressive first start…but let’s face it: a couple of
those TDs were handed to him by Carolina turnovers. We believe Joe Gibbs isn’t
going down without a fight. Look for Washington to finally put together a
complete game and play all FOUR QUARTERS. Washington has the talent and the
coaching to beat Dallas. We’re taking Washington +3 at
home.
Washington Redskins +3
Miami Dolphins vs
Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears have crushed teams at home this
season. They are one of the biggest Public teams week in and week out. Chicago
almost losing outright to Arizona on Monday Night Football was by far the
biggest game of the year for every sportsbook. When Chicago plays, the Public
money follows. You could honestly post any number (-14, -16, -18) on this game
and the majority of the public would still take Chicago. The oddsmakers know
this have shaded the line 2-2.5pts. Every sportsbook we spoke to reported taking
heavy one-sided Public action on Chicago. We believe the Public money will push
this game to 14 before kick. We suggest taking a double shot of Pepto and
getting down on Miami +13.5 (+14 if you can wait).
Miami Dolphins
+13.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for
this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 9.
Games to Watch
(15-9)
Tennessee Titans +10
Washington Redskins +3
Miami
Dolphins +13.5
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep
Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com
for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel
Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com