Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL
Week 21 - SuperBowl Edition
2/2/2007 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the
Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com gives sports fans
unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all
access pass with Sports Marketplace! Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he
speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle , 5Dimes.com,
BetUs.com, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and
the Sharps are pounding.
Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 21 SUPERBOWL
NFL
Regular Season
For the NFL Regular season SportsInsights.com Games
to Watch produced an impressive 31-18-1 = 63.3% record. Not bad for a free
weekly column. If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be
sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a
membership. Your bankroll will thank you for it!
• 2006 Games to Watch
= 31-18 = 63.3%
• 2005 Games to Watch = 33-25 = 56.9%
• Overall = 64-43 =
59.8%
NFL AFC/NFL Championship Recap
All
sportsbooks reported a healthy AFC/NFC playoff weekend, retaining between 2-3%
of their handle. Steve Stone line manager at Oasis had this to say, “Chicago
winning big was the key to a profitable Sunday. New Orleans was the big Public
favorite taking in about 70% of the Public money. There was a ton of parlay and
teaser action tied to New Orleans.” New Orleans getting steamrolled by Chicago
broke up the majority of exotic bets that translated into a profitable Sunday
for the sportsbooking industry.
SportsInsights.com NFL Playoff Edition
Games to Watch bounced back in the Conference AFC/NFC Championship round going
1-0. Chicago proved once again that Defense wins championships. The NFL Playoff
Edition Games to Watch is 2-1. View
last week’s column *Source: SportsInsights.com
NFL Playoff
Edition - Games to Watch (2-1)
Indianapolis Colts vs
Chicago Bears
This year, as in years past, the AFC is widely
considered the dominant conference due to the inter-league pounding the NFC took
during the regular season. Most of the major online sportsbooks opened at Indy
-7. Pinnacle did open at -6 and within minutes took enough early Indy -6 money
that they quickly moved to 7, finally settling at 6.5.
The sportsbooks
we spoke with – all reported taking “even” Public action on both teams, but
significantly more Sharp money on Chicago +7. The line has moved from 7 to 6.5
at a lot of sportsbooks (CRIS + Pinnacle), but there are still plenty of 7’s for
the taking.
We’ve been on the Chicago Bears this entire playoff run. Why
stop now? This time of year, it’s about Defense. The great thing about Defense
is the Public consistently undervalues it. The Public and Media love scoring and
high-flying offensive teams – and continually overvalue them. All the media
wants to talk about is Indy’s offense and Manning’s golden arm – and how Rex
Grossman is possibly the worst QB ever to play in a Super Bowl. Let’s face it:
if a “Trent Dilfer QB’ed team” can win a Super Bowl, then a Defense CAN and WILL
win a Super Bowl. Sorry Trent!
We fully anticipate the Chicago Defense
will rise to the challenge. We like the fact that early Sharp money is on
Chicago +7. We believe there is tremendous value in getting the Bears at +7.
They are a well-coached squad that has the motivational advantage of playing the
underdog role. They have an impressive Defense complemented by a strong inside
running game. We’re taking the Bears +7 and looking to finish off the NFL season
by cashing in a winner.
Chicago Bears
+7
Games to Watch – Playoff Edition
(2-1)
Chicago Bears +7
It should be another exciting
NFL Playoff weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser
pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
Enjoy the Big Game!
Daniel
Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com