Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL
Week 1
9/8/2006 2:15 PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the
Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com gives sports fans
unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all
access pass with Sports Marketplace! Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he
speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, BetUs.com,
and Oasis about
which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first
five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at
what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
NFL 2005 Season Recap (33-25
= 56.9%)
It’s always nice to start off the
year by taking a look back. For the 2005 NFL season, SportsInsights.com
Games to Watch was an impressive 33-25 = 56.9%. Last year by all
accounts was the “Year of the Square,” meaning favorites covered at an
unprecedented rate. For our column (which is primarily underdog value plays
“against the public”) to achieve a 57% win percentage is a miracle in itself –
but let’s not linger on the past too long: a new NFL season is upon
us!
NFL WEEK 1
It’s been an extremely long preseason and it’s finally time
for some REAL football. Oh, how I hate preseason football. I never bet it and I
never will, but let’s save that rant for another time.
Warning to all new readers of the Sports Marketplace
column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need nerves of steel and an
iron stomach. Purchasing a case of Pepto-Bismol wouldn’t be a bad idea. The
goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line
value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason.
The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the
worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell
on good.
We anticipate New England, Seattle, and Arizona to be the
most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view live
wagering statistics from SEVEN online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 1 Sports
Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Cincinnati Bengal vs Kansas
City Chiefs
Are the Cincinnati Bengals that
good? The Public thinks so. This game will be one of the top five most lopsided
bet games. The sportsbooks will need KC HUGE this weekend. I love being on the
side of the sportsbook. The line opened at KC -3 at CRIS; a couple of books
offered -4 earlier, but with low bet limits. I spoke with the line managers at
Bowmans and Oasis, with both confirming that heavy one-sided PUBLIC action on
Cincinnati pushed the line to KC-1. I like the value in a solid KC squad only
laying -1 at home. I wouldn’t be surprised if this line moves to a Pick before
kick-off. Our money is with the sportsbooks!
Kansas City
-1
Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit
Lions
There is little doubt in the
sportsbook industry that this will be the biggest game of the weekend. The
Public can’t get enough of Seattle. Steve Stone, line manager at Oasis put it
best, “It’s like we opened the flood gates. Every other parlay we take is tied
to Seattle. If we win this game and manage to break up teasers, we’ll have a
profitable day.” Very rarely will you see a game being bet this one-sided.
SportsInsights.com is showing 92% of the Public on Seattle with approx 50,000
bets polled. This game satisfies four major criteria we use to judge line
value.
- Public overwhelmingly on one sidee
- Home dog
- Drastic line movement caused by Public
money
- Negative press
The game opened at Seattle -4 and
has moved 3pts to Seattle -7. We’re taking the +7 BetUs.com is offering and
looking for a big opening week home dog cover.
Detroit
+7
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay
Packers
Last season Chicago went from being an afterthought to Super
Bowl contenders. Their smothering Defense reeked havoc on opposing offences.
Unfortunately, Chicago’s offense has to take the field and continually reeked
havoc on themselves. Green Bay is coming off the worst season in the Favre era.
Look for Green Bay to play with a chip on their shoulder as they have lots to
prove this season. I like an intense division rival getting +4.5 points at HOME.
As expected, there’s heavy one-sided action on Chicago.
5Dimes.com is reporting a decent amount of Sharp action on Green Bay that is
helping to keep the line steady. We anticipate the Public action to overwhelm
the Sharp money and push this line to -5 or -5.5 before kickoff.
Green Bay
+4.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of
SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week
1.
Games to Watch
(0-0)
KC -1
Detroit
+7
Green Bay +4.5
It should be another exciting
opening NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser
pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest
real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the
new edition of the Sports Marketwatch. Enjoy the games!
Daniel
Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com