NFL Marketwatch Week 8 2005-06

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 8
10/27/2005  11:15 PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, this season has produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 8

NFL Week 7 Recap
All sportsbooks reporting growth in both handle size and number of bets placed for NFL Week 7. Sunday was an average winning day for the books, most holding between 4-7%. But Sunday’s gains were quickly given back on Monday Night Football. The Jets not covering and all teasers hitting resulted in a disastrous Monday night for the house. Scott Kaminsky, line manager at Bowmans, had this to say about the MNF game, “All the parlays and especially TEASERS proved winners in the Falcons game, and it was a terrible Monday night.”
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side the public posted another losing record 2-2. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis failed to keep the previous week’s momentum and posted it’s second losing weekend of the season, 1-2. Overall, that makes SportsInsights.com 19-9.
View last week’s column. *source: SportsInsights.com

NFL Week 8 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

With all of those Teaser and Parlays hitting on Monday night, we expect handle sizes to continue their growth trend. This week has already seen at least 6 games move 2pts or more. That’s very odd for this time of year. There is a lot of Square money driving up the price for favorites. The theme this week is taking advantage of bloated lines.

Look for the public to lay any number put out by the books. The public teams this week are Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and New England. Let’s see what NFL Week 8 has in store.

Arizona vs Dallas
View Live Stats – http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

This game opened at 7 and has already moved to10. The line managers I spoke with at Pinnacle, Bowmans, Oasis, and 5Dimes, all stated that it’s primarily Square action that’s moving this game.

5Dimes reports, “We’re seeing a lot of Square action no matter what the line. People are betting this game like they know the score.” Hell if the public is willing to lay 8pts, why not 10, or 11? This is where the value is. Bowmans did report some Sharp action on Arizona at 9.5 and 9. I fully expect Sharp action to push this line back to 8.5 or 9pt before game time. I’d take the 10pts and smile.

Play on Arizona +10

Buffalo vs New England
View Live Stats – http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

Early public money is chasing Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. New England is coming off a bye week. The general media perception is the Pats will be healthier and prepared for Sunday’s game against division rival Buffalo. Buffalo on the other hand is coming off a 21pt lose to the lowly Oakland Raiders.

Square action has pushed this line from 7 to 9.5. I see at lot of value in this line. I’m hoping some book dangles a 10 on game day.

Play on Buffalo +9.5

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh
View Live Stats – http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp
Monday Night Football has not been kind to the sportsbooks this season. MNF games generate a huge amount of Teaser and Square action. As a general rule, if the books break up teasers on the Sunday and Monday night games, they will have profitable weekend. This rule is amplified this weekend.

This is already one of the most lopsided bet games of the week. Steve Kaminsky line manager at Bowmans reports, “The Pittsburgh game is going to be huge for us.” If the books are able to break up teasers on the Sunday and Monday Night games, they’ll enjoy a profitable weekend no matter what happens in the 1 and 4 o’clock games.

Heavy Square action has pushed this line from 8.5 to 11pts. I don’t anticipate this line moving to 11.5 or 12pts. More likely than not, Sharp action will push it back to 10pts before game time. As always our money is with the Sharp players.

Play on Baltimore +11

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 8.
Games to Watch (19-9)
Arizona +10
Buffalo +9.5
Baltimore +11

It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest line movements directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Enjoy!
Daniel Fabrizio
Founder
SportsInsights.com