by The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2010-11 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.
Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 7
Recapping Week 6
Marketwatch had a rough Week 6, losing two out of our three games. Our two losses came in blowout fashion, as Colorado and Iowa State lost by a combined 67 points. LSU, getting 6.5 points, provided us with our lone win of the week. With six seconds left, quarterback Jarrett Lee connected with Terrence Toliver for the game-winning touchdown as LSU topped Florida, 33-29.
Overall Record = 9-9 (50%)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
NCAA Sports Marketwatch Week 7 – Game to Watch
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin (10/16 – 7:00 p.m. ET)
Terrelle Pryor continued his push for the Heisman Trophy last week, completing 80% of his passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns, in Ohio State’s 38-10 victory over Indiana.
Wisconsin rebounded from their first loss of the season with a 41-23 win over Minnesota. The Badgers were unstoppable on the ground, racking up a staggering 250 yards rushing.
Ohio State opened as a 6-point favorite at Pinnacle and the #1-ranked Buckeyes are currently receiving 77% of spread wagers. While the betting public is all over Ohio State, the line has moved in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, dropping to -3.5.
A quick scan of the Betting System plays on this game show there is value on the home underdog. Two positive Steam Moves and three positive Smart Money Plays, including one at Pinnacle (+11.11 units), have been triggered on Wisconsin.
Most market-setting sportsbooks have Wisconsin getting 3.5 points, but many others have moved to a full 4. Do some line shopping and grab the Badgers +4.
Changes to Marketwatch
Our NCAA Football and NFL Editions of Sports Marketwatch have been reduced to one game per week. Over the summer, Sports Insights refined our Best Bet criteria to fit more into ourBetting Against the Public philosophy. As a result, a significant percentage of Marketwatch’s Games to Watch are now included in our Best Bet or Square Play Betting Systems.
These changes helped MLB Best Bets finish the regular season +29.42 units, while NCAA Football and NFL Best Bets are +8.15 units, combined, so far this season.
Betting Against the Public has been a very profitable strategy so far during the 2010 football seasons as NCAA Football and NFL Square Plays are +16.14 units, combined.
So, here’s a wrap-up of Sports Insights’ analysis of this week’s Game to Watch for NCAA Football Week 7.
Game to Watch (9-9)
It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at Sports Insights