NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 1 2009

9/3/2009
by The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2009-10 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

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Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 1

Recapping 2008

Last season was our first writing the NCAA Football Edition of our Sports Marketwatch column. Markewatch posted a solid 25-23-3 record, good for a 52.1 winning percentage. To help prepare for the upcoming season, make sure to check out our 2009-10 NCAA Football Betting Systems Preview.

Overall Record – 0-0 

NCAA Week 1

We anticipate there will be quite a few lopsided bet games this week due to the cupcakes on the schedules of many top teams. Visit SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here are a trio of line value games we are keying on.

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 1 – Games to Watch

Oregon vs. Boise State (9/3 – 10:15 p.m. EST)

In Marketwatch’s first game of the season, Oregon takes on Boise State in a matchup of preseason Top 25 teams. Oregon certainly has their work cut out for them, as Boise State is currently enjoying a 49-game regular-season home winning streak. In 2008, the Broncos went on the road and defeated the Ducks 37-32. In that game, Oregon lost their quarterback, Jared Masoli, to what some believe was a cheap hit, so the Ducks will certainly be motivated when they head to Boise Thursday night.

Boise State opened as 5.5-point home favorites at CRIS. The public is backing Oregon, as they are currently garnering 59% of spread bets, 63% of moneyline bets and 57% of parlay bets. The public backing of the underdog has caused the line to shrink, as Boise State now sits as 3-point favorites at CRIS. Movement at many of the sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights has triggered four smart money plays on the Broncos, including one at Catalina/VegasVic who were 43-36 (+5.14 units) in 2008. We’re going to follow the Smart Money, go against the public and take Boise State to push their winning streak on the Smurf Turf to 50.

Boise State -2.5 (SIA)

Georgia vs Oklahoma State (9/5 - 3:30 p.m. EST)

Georgia entered 2008 with National Championship aspirations. However, the Bulldogs did not live up to expectations, posting a disappointing 10-3 record. After losing quarterback Matthew Stafford, running back Knowshon Moreno and receiver Mohamed Massquoi to the NFL draft, many expect 2009 to be a rebuilding year for head coach Mark Richt and the Bulldogs. Oklahoma State returns Dez Bryant, arguably the most dynamic receiver in college football. Bryant caught 87 passes for 1480 yards and 19 touchdowns in 2008 and will have to be even more productive this season if the Cowboys hope to compete with Oklahoma and Texas for the Big 12 Championship.

Oklahoma State opened as 6-point favorites at CRIS and are currently slight public favorites as well. The Cowboys are receiving 53% of spread bets and 55% of parlay wagers, yet Oklahoma State has shrunk to 4.5-point favorites at CRIS. This line movement, combined with the betting percentages, triggered a Smart Money play at ABC on Georgia. ABC’s Smart Money plays have posted positive units won in each of the last three seasons. We like a sportsbook that has shown that type of consistency and will take Georgia and the points.

Georgia +5.5  (Grande)

Missouri vs Illinois (9/5 – 3:30 p.m EST)

Missouri is coming off a solid 10-4 season, including a 30-23 victory against Northwestern in the Valero Alamo Bowl. Repeating last season’s success may be a tall task for the Tigers who have to replace quarterback Chase Daniel and receiver Jeremy Maclin. Daniel and Maclin led Missouri’s offense last year, hooking up for 13 scores through the air. Illinois struggled to a 5-7 record in 2008, but return senior quarterback Juice Williams, who was both the team’s leading passer and rusher last season. Any hope the Fighting Illini have of reaching a bowl game this year will rest solely on the shoulders of their veteran quarterback.

Illinois opened as 3-point home favorites at CRIS and have grown to 6.5-point favorites. The public is heavily behind the Fighting Illini, with 67% of spread and parlay bets currently backing Illinois. Multiple sportsbooks triggered Smart Money Plays on Missouri, including BetOnline, who posted a 41-25 record (+12.19 units) last season. Three sportsbooks have triggered Steam Moves on Missouri, most notably Bet Jamaica, who was 128-101-1 (+15.03 units) in 2008. We’re following both of these moves and will go against the public and take the Missouri Tigers in our final game.

Missouri  +7 (Bodog)

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 1.

Games to Watch (0-0)
Boise State -2.5 (SIA)
Georgia +5.5
 (Grande) 
Missouri +7 (Bodog)

It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com