12/2/2009 5:10 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the NBA edition of Sports Marketwatch, wherethe Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans an unprecedented glimpse into the NBApoint-spread marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happeningon the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!Initially, the NBA Edition of Sports Marketwatch will be a weekly columnpublished on Wednesdays, normally around 5PM, Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com analyzes the marketplace, and especially thesports betting industry’s largest and most reputable sportsbooks, to identifywhich games the public is chasing and which ones the Sharps are pounding. Let’stake a look at what’s in store for tonight’s NBA games.
SportsMarketplace – NBA Edition
Progress is progress, I suppose, but we can’t help but feel sour about the wayour last edition of NBA Marketwatch finished. Philadelphia rode strongbench contributions from veterans Jason Kapono and Willie Green to a verycompetitive game against the Celtics. They eventually lost 113-110,covering easily. Milwaukee, also paced by big bench performances from LukeRidnour and Hakim Warrick, looked to have the game in-hand, holding an 89-84lead with less than a minute to go. Clutch shots from rookie DarrenCollison and a key Brandon Jennings turnover allowed the Hornets to tie thegame, and they ultimately won 102-99 in Overtime, beating the 2.5-point spreadby an unlikely half a point.
2009-10 NBA Games to Watch: 3-7, 30%*
Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 over Phoenix Suns
Steve Nash and the Suns head to Cleveland fresh off a disappointing loss to theNew York Knicks and their former coach, Mike D’Antoni. Phoenix was givenup for dead by many in the offseason, having shipped Shaq off to Cleveland andtrying their best to deal explosive forward Amar’e Stoudemire as well.They’ve quieted the naysayers thus far, starting the season 14-4 and a strong11-7 against the spread. Cleveland stumbled out of the gate but hasrighted the ship, winning nine of their last eleven games. European bigman Zydrunas Ilgauskas will become Cleveland’s all-time leader in games playedwhen he enters the game on Wednesday, but he’s unlikely to log significantminutes against the Suns’ speedy lineup.
The Cavaliers opened at -7 at both CRIS and Pinnacle, and though Phoenix isreceiving 55% of spread and 62% of moneyline bets, Cleveland’s line has grown to-7.5. This sort of reverse line movement from the bookmakers is telling,and we’re pleased to see a Smart Money play has been triggered by standoutBetPhoenix (20-9, +10.18 Units Won) to account for it. A 69% winningpercentage is nothing to sneeze at, and we have no problem taking a LeBron-ledteam as a public underdog.
Sacramento Kings pk over Indiana Pacers
Most people expected Sacramento’s season to fall off a cliff after Kevin Martinwent out with a wrist injury, but after going 8-5 in November, it may be time tostop underestimating these young Kings. Rookie Tyreke Evans is playingwith pace and poise, and the inside combination of Spencer Hawes and JasonThompson is formidable defensively and on the glass. They’ll see acontrasting style from the Pacers, whose big guys, Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster,are less physical and prefer perimeter play. Danny Granger is as big of ascoring threat as there is in the league, and they’ve finally gotten forwardMike Dunleavy back from last season’s knee injury.
Sacramento opened as 3-point favorites at CRIS but are receiving only 38% ofpublic spread bets. As such, the line has dropped across the board, but inwidely varying amounts. The Kings are still -2 at a number of books, butthey also cover every possible half-point spread down to a pick ‘em, which youcan find at BetUS. We’ve seen solid Betting System plays triggered onSacramento, including a Smart Money play at Pinnacle (+3.24 Units) and a SteamMove at Legendz (+3.5). Let’s play on the young Kings to out-muscle thePacers on their way to a victory tonight at home.
Games to Watch: 3-7 = 30%
It should be an exciting night in the sports marketplace. Keep SportsMarketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.comfor thelatest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.We’ll be back next Wednesday with the new edition of the SportsMarketwatch –NBA Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com