NBA Marketwatch Edition 23 2009-10

SportsMarketwatch
NBA Edition
3/31/2010 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the NBA edition of Sports Marketwatch, wherethe Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans an unprecedented glimpse into the NBApoint-spread marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happeningon the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!Initially, the NBA Edition of Sports Marketwatch will be a weekly columnpublished on Wednesdays, normally around 5PM, Eastern Time.

The staff at SportsInsights.com analyzes the marketplace, and especially thesports betting industry’s largest and most reputable sportsbooks, to identifywhich games the public is chasing and which ones the Sharps are pounding. Let’stake a look at what’s in store for tonight’s NBA games.

SportsMarketplace – NBA Edition

Marketwatchcontinues its hot streak thanks to a thrilling last-second offensive rebound anddunk by Josh Smith last Wednesday.  Atlanta had come back from an early15-2 deficit but also relinquished a late lead, as Vince Carter tied the gamewith a 3-pointer with 9.9 seconds left in the game.  Joe Johnson – whofinished with 17 points, 6 rebounds and 8 assists – took a running one-hander asthe clock wound down, and the ricochet bounced off softly and high enough for astreaking Josh Smith to slam it home with 00.1 seconds remaining on the clock.The Hawks took the win and the cover over the Magic, 86-84.

2009-10 NBA Games to Watch: 19-17,52.8%*

*Source: SportsInsights.com

Atlanta Hawks -1 over Los Angeles Lakers

Well, here we go again. Tonight we’regoing to take Atlanta at home over the other half of last year’s NBA Finals,the champion LA Lakers. The Hawks haven’t actually been terribly consistentof late, losing road games to Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Toronto in thelast couple of weeks. Fortunately for our purposes, none of those lossescame in Atlanta, where they haven’t lost for over a month.  They remainan NBA Top 3 performer against the spread this season and will welcome aLakers team that is neither at full strength nor in their best form.Despite winning 9 of their last 11 games against mostly modest competition,they went through a 3-game losing streak early this month and are nowwithout young center Andrew Bynum.This game opened as a pick ‘emat both CRIS and Olympic, and the defending champions are receiving 64% ofspread bets, plus 71% of moneyline and 67% of parlays wagers.  By allrights, Los Angeles should now be a small road favorite, but they aren’t.Instead – get ready to hear our old refrain – the line has moved in theopposite direction of the Public bets, a full point and a half at mostoffshore books.  It appears that some big, sharp money is behind theathletic team from the dirty South, and indeed we’ve seen a number of goodplays triggered on the Hawks. With a Steam Move from BetUS (22-14, +5.8Units Won) and a Smart Money play from Bet Jamaica (+13.22 Units Won), wehave no problem recommending this game with confidence.  You can stillsave the extra half point at a handful of books, including Bodog,Sportsbook.com and Bet Phoenix.

Atlanta Hawks -1

Toronto Raptors -9.5 over Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers will hop from Milwaukee up to Toronto tonight to face a Raptorsteam whose star has dimmed significantly of late.  They’ve lost 13 of theirlast 18 games, and though some of the problems can be attributed to injuries,they’ve often seemed unfocused and undisciplined as well. Their early-week winat Charlotte paired with Chicago’s close loss to Phoenix last night has them alot more hopeful for the 8th playoff seed, but they can’t take their pedal offthe gas yet, only a game and a half up.  The Clippers are nearly 20 gamesout of the playoffs, and without Baron Davis for the next two games due toinjury, simply don’t have much to offer opponents in the way of competition.

Toronto opened as 9-point favorites and, until halfway through the writing ofthis article, were Public underdogs to visiting Los Angeles’ JV team.  Atthis moment, they’re getting 53% of spread bets, but the relevant line movement- moving to -10 at most offshore books – occurred earlier in the day when thedisrespect was greater.  Perhaps it does seem like a lot of points for ateam like the Raptors to lay, but this Clippers lineup got blown out by 19 atMilwaukee last night.  Toronto is coming off a day of rest, and we’ve alsotriggered our strongest Smart Money play, Bet Jamaica (+13.22), on them. Get thetriggering line and save the half point at BetUS.

Toronto Raptors -9.5 (BetUS)
Games to Watch: 19-17 = 52.8%
Atlanta -1
Toronto -9.5