NBA Marketwatch

Edition 8 Betting Trends
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com 

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NBA Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 2-5

Recapping Last Week

Last week's NBA Marketwatch "Game to Watch" selection, the Indiana Pacers, fell at home to the Miami Heat by a final score of 105-90. Despite having six different Pacers score in double-figures, Indiana was overmatched by the dynamic duo of Lebron James (23 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists) and Dwyane Wade (16 points, 6 rebounds).

Click here to view last week's article

Despite getting two points at home, the Pacers were unable to cover the spread, dropping NBA Marketwatch to 2-5 on the season.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors

With the 2011-12 NBA season entering its final week of play before the All-Star break, the Los Angeles Clippers (19-10, 8-6 away) travel to Oracle Arena to take on the in-state rival Golden State Warriors (11-17, 8-9 home), with tip-off set for 10:30 PM ET.

Infused by the pre-season acquisition of star point guard Chris Paul as well as the emergence of big men Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan down low, the "Lob City" Clippers have quickly become a huge public favorite due to their flashy and dynamic offensive play.

However, thanks in large part to the offensively-minded system implemented under first-year head coach Mark Jackson, the Warriors rank 3rd overall in the NBA in terms of assists per game (22.6) and are actually averaging more points per game (98.8, 4th overall in NBA) than the Clippers (97.8), which bodes well for this run-and-gun showdown.

Central to the Warriors' high powered attack has been the stellar play of guards Monta Ellis (22.0 PPG, 5.9 APG) and Stephen Curry (17.2 PPG, 6.5 APG) as well as double-double machine David Lee (19.0 PPG, 9.9 RPG).  

According to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, Los Angeles opened as a 1.5-point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook and is currently receiving 77% of all spread bets.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our Contributing Sportsbooks:

As a result of the hugely lopsided and continued hammering of road favorite Los Angeles, the line has increased to Golden State +2.5 (Cris).

Further strengthening our selection, we have also triggered a pair of profitable Smart Money moves on Golden State +2 by Carib Sports (28-21, 57%, +4.48 units) and Golden State +2.5 by Heritage (52-43, 54%, +6.11 units), which currently rank as the top two performing books in terms of their respective NBA Betting System.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the Spread Betting Trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Currently, most every book is offering this game at 2.5 points, however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as this could change before tip-off.

We are fading the road favorite Clippers and going with the underdog Warriors to pick up the big home victory and get NBA Marketwatch back on the winning track.

Games to Watch (2-5)
Golden State +2.5 (Cris)

Enjoy the game!