9/29/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
Marketwatch took the good side of both NL West versus NL Central matchups on Friday, padding our stats and your wallet. Hey, that’s what we’re here for. Both starters pitched well for Colorado and St. Louis, and it took a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the ninth to give the Rockies their final edge, winning 2-1. In our other game, we called in a personal favor to Carlos Zambrano for the time he stuck us with the check at Morton’s. He didn’t disappoint, throwing a complete game shutout of the Giants with fewer than 100 pitches. Big Z even drove in two of the Cubs’ three runs, so he’ll probably expect another steak soon.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 49-47, 51%, +20.99 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Milwaukee Brewers +155 over Colorado Rockies
Despite how unlikely this scenario seemed a couple of weeks ago, the Rockies are in a real playoff race. The Giants have faded, but the Braves are only two games behind and finish the season at home against the lowly Nationals. Colorado concludes their regular season against the Dodgers, and while it may be tempting to look ahead, they’d be smart to keep focused against a Brewers team capable of scoring runs against anyone. Milwaukee will send young Chris Narveson to the mound, a converted long reliever who’s shown well in two starts since joining the rotation. Last week, he struck out ten Chicago Cubs in less than six innings, earning the win. Jason Marquis, on the other hand, has given up five earned runs in four of his last six starts. Read that sentence again for emphasis on how we feel about Jason Marquis.
Colorado opened at -175 at CRIS and -171 at Pinnacle, and having been much-publicized of late, are getting big public support. Not only are 59% of moneyline bets falling on the Rockies, but they are also getting 73% of spread and parlay wagers. You’d think the line would fly in that thin Colorado air, but instead, it’s fallen. The Rockies are down to -163 at a number of books, and we’ve seen a Smart Money play triggered at Matchbook (+3.59 Units Won). We like the play against a pitcher with some bad momentum, a team with some serious pressure and a public that doesn’t know how to find value.
Milwaukee +155 (Pinnacle)
Cincinnati Reds +114 over St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals may be the class of the NL Central, but it’s the Reds who are streaking into October. They’ve won six of their last seven and ten of their last thirteen and are dangerously close to having what a Reds fan might consider a semi-respectable season. Tonight they’ll send perennial late-season call-up Homer Bailey to the hill, and he himself is dangerously close to turning into the stud they thought he might be three years ago. He’s held opponents to two runs or less in six of his last nine starts, and the strikeouts are coming bunches as well. A big talent who has been written off by the public suggests a strong value find.
The public is certainly writing him off tonight, with only 26% of moneylines and 19% of parlay bets going for Cincinnati at home. The line movement, however, would suggest the opposite, having dropped from St. Louis -135 to -125 at CRIS. There are multiple Sports Insights Betting System plays on the Reds tonight, the strongest being a Steam Move at the current value of +114, triggered at 5Dimes (+12.8 Units Won). 5Dimes MLB Steam Moves also have a solid 56.2% hit rate this season, and we think the Cardinals’ minds are already on the postseason. Play on the Reds to take out the redbirds.
Cincinnati +114 (Grande)
Games to Watch (49-47, +20.99 units)
Milwaukee Brewers +155
Cincinnati Reds +114
It should be another exciting night in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com