MLB Marketwatch Edition 45 2009

Sports Marketwatch
MLB Edition
9/11/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

Tuesday’s edition of Marketwatch was certainly an interesting one. Our first game was dominated by starters Felix Hernandez and Scott Kazmir, who both scattered three hits over seven innings. Seattle’s Mike Sweeney hit a game-tying solo homerun off closer Brian Fuentes in the top of the ninth inning, sending it to extras. After holding Seattle scoreless in the top half of the tenth, Los Angeles got a clutch RBI single from Erick Aybar, giving the Angels an extra-inning victory. In Game 2, Marketwatch took the Padres +240 over San Francisco and Tim Lincecum. After this article was published, Lincecum was scratched, shrinking the line significantly across the board. In the world of sports betting, situations like these do occur, sometimes helping and sometimes hurting. In this instance, it worked in our favor. Marketwatch got in at +240, and, even though we went 1-1 on the day, we added 1.4 units to our season total.

Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.

2009 MLB Games to Watch: 42-44, 48.8%, +14.7 units
*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Atlanta Braves +117 over St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals, who currently enjoy a commanding 11.5 game lead in the NL Central, are now turning their attention to securing the best record in the National League. Tonight they send Joel Pineiro (14-9, 3.28 ERA) to the mound to take on Jair Jurrjens (10-10, 2.93 ERA) and the Braves. Pineiro has not lost since June 28, but has posted a 5.54 ERA in the month of September. Jurrjens has pitched better than his .500 record would suggest, but the Braves have struggled to provide run support with him on the mound.

The public is heavily behind St. Louis, who are currently garnering 87% of runline bets, 75% of moneyline bets and 73% of parlay bets. St. Louis opened as -140 favorites at CRIS and the line has moved against the betting percentages, shrinking to -130. Steam Moves on Atlanta were triggered at Pinnacle and Matchbook, who are +32.8 units on the season, combined. When Pinnacle triggers Steam Moves, we listen. Give us the Braves.

Atlanta Braves +117 (Bodog)

Los Angeles Dodgers +112 over San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles is currently clinging to a two-game lead in the NL West over Colorado, who are winners of seven straight games. San Francisco only trailed Colorado by one game in the NL Wild Card standings one-week ago, but the streaking Rockies now lead that race by 4.5 games. Matt Cain (13-4, 2.51 ERA) will get the start tonight for the Giants. Cain has been dominant all season and currently ranks fourth in the NL in ERA. Los Angeles counters with Hiroki Kuroda (5-6 4.15 ERA), who gave up four runs in five innings in his last start, his first since being hit in the head with a line drive on Aug. 15.

San Francisco opened as -140 favorites at CRIS and has shrunk to -121. The favorites are being backed by the public with 62% of runline bets, 62% of moneyline bets and 54% of parlay bets currently on the Giants. There is significant reverse-line movement across the board in this game, hinting that sharp money has been placed on the Dodgers. Also, a Steam Move on Los Angeles was triggered at BetJamaica, who are +15.8 units in 2009. We’re following the sharp money and a solid Steam Move, and we will take the Dodgers in Game 2.

Los Angeles Dodgers +112  (Matchbook)

Games to Watch (41-43, +14.7 units)
Atlanta Braves +117 (Bodog)
Los Angeles Dodgers +112 (Matchbook)

It should be another exciting night in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com