9/1/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
Marketwatch swung for the fences Friday, taking the White Sox at +203 over the Yankees. Mark Buehrle and CC Sabathia both pitched very well, but it was Robinson Cano’s two-out, walk-off homerun in the bottom of the tenth inning that ultimately sank the White Sox, and Marketwatch’s bid for the upset. Our second game was also a battle of aces, as Tim Lincecum outdueled Ubaldo Jimenez in San Francisco’s 2-0 win over Colorado.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 39-41, 48.8%, +12.38 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
San Francisco Giants +174 over Philadelphia Phillies
In tonight’s first game, the Giants send Jonathan Sanchez (6-10, 4.27 ERA) to the mound to take on Cole Hamels (7-8, 4.52 ERA) and the Phillies. Sanchez has pitched well away from San Francisco recently, going 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA in his last three road starts. Hamels, who was 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA in August, struggled in his last start against San Francisco, giving up seven runs and 10 hits in a 7-2 loss to the Giants.
Philadelphia opened as -183 favorites at Pinnacle and have shrunk to -182. The public is behind the favorites with 55% of runline bets, 63% of moneyline bets and 80% of parlay wagers currently on the Phillies. Even though the line has dropped only slightly, these betting percentages and reverse-line movement suggest there is some sharp money backing San Francisco.
San Francisco Giants +174 (Pinnacle)
Pittsburgh Pirates +106 over Cincinnati Reds
In a battle of NL Central bottom dwellers, the Pirates head to Cincinnati to take on the Reds at the Great American Ballpark. Charlie Morton (3-6, 5.00 ERA), who gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings against the Reds on August 21, gets the ball for Pittsburgh. Cincinnati counters with Justin Lehr (3-1, 4.19 ERA), who is 1-1 with a 7.82 ERA in his last two starts. Lehr faced Pittsburgh on August 22, yielding six runs and eight hits in five innings of work.
Cincinnati opened at -125 at Pinnacle and currently sit at -111. The public likes the Reds with 89% of runline bets, 72% of moneyline bets and 57% of parlay wagers behind Cincinnati. Steam moves backing Pittsburgh were triggered at both Pinnacle and 5Dimes. These two sportsbooks are a combined +22.4 units on the season, so we’ll follow these moves, go against the public, and take Pittsburgh in this game.
Pittsburgh +106 (Matchbook)
Games to Watch (39-41, +12.38 units)
San Francisco Giants +174 (Pinnacle)
Pittsburgh Pirates +106 (Matchbook)
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com