MLB Marketwatch Edition 33 2009

MLB Edition 
7/31/2009  5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

Tuesday’s installment was as close as it gets to a break-even split here at MarketWatch.  The Phillies got a strong performance from ace Cole Hamels, who struck out nine while allowing only four baserunners over eight innings.  Dan Haren came down with a rare case of inefficiency, needing 117 pitches to get through five innings.  With two runs and two RBIs, Shane Victorino had a hand in all of Philadelphia’s offense, and they took the victory 4-3.  We very nearly came away with our second win of the evening, as Toronto closer Scott Downs had two outs and two strikes on Ichiro in the bottom of the 9th inning.  The Japanese All-Star once again proved his mettle with a game-winning RBI single to center.

Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.

2009 MLB Games to Watch: 34-29, 54.0%, +17.69 units 
*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Seattle Mariners +153 over Texas Rangers

There are times in sports betting when things just seem too easy, too obvious.  You look at the line.  You look at the teams.  You glance back at the line.  What am I missing? you might wonder.  All too often in these instances, you never quite figure out what it was that you were missing, only that you did, in fact, miss it altogether.  The linemakers simply knew something you didn’t, and that was that.  Perhaps this is one of those days, an opportunity that screams at you so loudly that you just know it’s trying to trick you.  But we’re advising that you lunge for it anyway.

The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners, strange as it may sound if you haven’t been keeping up with baseball this season, are both very much in the thick of the playoff hunt.  The Rangers trail the Angels by only 3 games in the AL West, and the Seattle Mariners consider themselves game for a Wild Card chase, as evidenced by their “buyer” status at the recently passed MLB trade deadline.  Tonight, the Mariners are in Arlington to face their division rivals, who will send to the mound Vicente Padilla, recently rehabilitated from the swine flu… Yes, you read that correctly.  The swine flu.  Padilla’s return has been pushed back a couple of times to provide him extra rest, but it is difficult not to wonder what his state of health and mind will actually be during his first start back.  He hasn’t exactly dominated this season as it is, posting a 4.67 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and only 52 strikeouts in 96.1 innings.  His counterpart, Jason Vargas, hasn’t put up sparkling numbers either, but he has sharply reduced his home runs allowed lately, giving up only two over the last month.  Keeping the ball in the yard is crucial when facing the Rangers, who have hit more dingers than any other team in the major leagues in 2009.

Texas opened as -165 favorites at both CRIS and Pinnacle.  Despite receiving 82% of moneyline bets, as well as 95% of runline and 80% of parlay bets, the line has dropped to -159 at Pinnacle.  To account for this reverse line movement in the face of such disparate public betting percentages, we’ll direct you to the Smart Money play triggered at BetOnline (+7.71 Units Won).  Sometimes it feels great to bet with your gut – especially when your gut tells you to bet against a pandemic – but we always like to pair our instincts with some sharp money.

***Though we usually have a second pick for you, Clayton Richard was scratched from tonight’s start against the Yankees after being traded at the deadline in a package for Jake Peavy.  That does away with our backing of the White Sox.  We’ll be back Tuesday, maybe with an extra game!

Game(s) to Watch (34-29, +17.69 units)
Seattle +153

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com