5/29/2009 4:55 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
Tuesday night saw another split for MarketWatch and another boost for your bankroll. The Nationals were disappointing, mustering only Adam Dunn’s solo home run against Livan Hernandez, whose rubber arm went the distance for the win. The chances were there, but Washington left five runners in scoring position and grounded into three double plays, shooting themselves quite predictably in the foot. The White Sox, on the other hand, went to Anaheim and came away with the victory. Second baseman Jayson Nix hit two home runs to double his season total, and Bartolo Colon went 6.2 innings allowing only four men to reach base.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 18-11, 62.1%, +12.70 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Minnesota Twins +132 over Tampa Bay Rays (#973)
The Twins, who saw both managers and both catchers ejected in yesterday’s tilt against Boston, look to regain their composure as they begin a series at Tampa Bay. Their biggest boon has been the return of catcher Joe Mauer, whose presence has improved Minnesota’s play in all aspects of the game. Twins’ pitchers are settling down with their preferred signal-caller behind the plate. Less balls in the dirt are reaching the backstop, and runners are less aggressive on the basepaths. His lineup protection is giving slugger Justin Morneau more good pitches to hit. And the fact that he’s hitting .407 with 11 home runs in only 91 at-bats doesn’t hurt, either. Twins’ management may have to pony up pretty soon to keep him away from the AL East, but for now, this is one pony they’re happy to ride. The Rays start this homestand four games under .500 and have lost five in a row. With ace Scott Kazmir on the disabled list and young starter David Price just coming up from Triple-A, the pressure is on James Shields and Matt Garza to carry the load. Shields heads to the mound tonight, but even when the Rays have staked their pitcher to a lead recently, the bullpen has seen fit to perform unspeakable acts of generosity and give it away.
Last year’s World Series run has finally garnered the Tampa franchise some respect in the betting world, and they opened as -160 home favorites at CRIS. They now sit between -135 and -145 across the sports betting marketplace despite receiving 65% of moneyline bets and over 90% of runline bets. We can account for this reverse line movement in a couple of ways, and they are evident to our Premium Pro members today. Two different Sports Insights Betting System plays have been triggered on Minnesota at 5Dimes, both a Smart Money (+3.41 units) and a Steam Move (+10.4 units). Let’s use these market indicators and expect the Twins to start this trip south off with a bang.
Seattle Mariners +168 over Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (#979)
The Mariners head to Anaheim Friday night to face division-rival Angels and their ace, John Lackey. Lackey has progressed well from an elbow injury that kept him out to start the season, but he hasn’t hit his stride yet, giving up 7 earned runs in his first 12 innings. Toeing the rubber for Seattle will be young Jason Vargas whose first three starts in place of injured Carlos Silva have been impressive. He surrendered only one earned run in each, an accomplishment magnified when you consider that two of the offenses he faced were the Red Sox and Rangers. The Angels have scored three runs or less in their last three and six of their last eight games, so offense may be at a premium tonight.
Los Angeles opened at -170 at CRIS and have received 75% of public moneyline bets. Yet the lines have stayed virtually the same, with only modest growth at a couple of sportsbooks. Why hasn’t the line movement reflected the betting percentages? Hey, we’re glad you asked. A Smart Money play was triggered at BetOnline (+2.31 units), and there is such disparity in the betting percentages that we’ve also seen a Square Play (+13.1 units). Seattle may be an AL West cellar-dweller again this year when all is said and done, but they look like a wise play tonight.
Games to Watch (18-11, +12.70 units)
Minnesota Twins +132
Seattle Mariners +168
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com