5/19/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
Friday’s games were heartbreaking here at MLB Marketwatch, as a couple of bullpen blowups handed us an 0-2 outing. Cleveland had a seven-run lead early against Tampa Bay, and even had a four-run lead after five innings. The bullpen then allowed five runs over the final four frames, finished off by walk-off home run by B.J. Upton that gave the Rays their biggest come-from-behind victory in franchise history. If that game wasn’t tough enough, our second pick saw one of the league’s best and most consistent closers blow a two-run lead. The Yankees capped off a ninth inning rally when with two outs Melky Cabrera drove in two runs with a single to center off Minnesota’s Joe Nathan. The two final-frame losses hand us our first 0-2 day of the 2009 season.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 15-8, 65.2%, +11.26 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Colorado Rockies +180 over Atlanta Braves
The Rockies Todd Helton went into Monday night’s game needing only one hit to reach 2,000 for his career, and it looked like he had it in the ninth inning. Then his hot-shot to shortstop Yunel Escobar was ruled an error, and Helton finished with an 0-4 night. He will get another shot tonight against Braves starter Jair Jurrjens (3-2, 2.06 ERA), against whom he is 3-7 in his career. Jurrjens has been a tough-luck starter for most of the season thanks to the Braves inability to score in his starts. He has the NL’s fifth best ERA, but he is receiving only 3.38 runs of support per start, including four games with two runs or less. He will oppose Colorado’s Jason Hammel (0-2, 4.62), who has a 4.02 ERA during three starts in May. He has also yet to allow an earned run in 10 innings on the road this season.
Atlanta opened has strong home favorites behind starter Jurrjens with a line of -200 at Olympic. Even with this huge line, the public has jumped behind the Braves heavily. Atlanta is receiving 72% of moneyline wagers, 78% of parlay bets, and 96% of runline bets. Despite this huge disparity, the line has returned to Atlanta -200 at Olympic after climbing as high -225 overnight. The line movement and betting percentages have triggered multiple plays on the Rockies from both our Smart Money and Steam Moves Betting Systems, including a Steam Move from Pinnacle (83-66, +12.7 units). We’ll follow the good steam and take the Rockies with the “plus money”.
Colorado Rockies +180 (SIA)
Detroit Tigers +115 over Texas Rangers
Dontrelle Willis (0-0, 7.71 ERA) will make his second start for Detroit since coming off the DL for an anxiety disorder. Things haven’t gone well for Willis since he was traded from Florida, as he has only made nine appearances for the major league club due to ineffectiveness and injuries. He is still seeking his first win in a Tigers uniform, but he catches a break as it looks like Josh Hamilton will miss the game for Texas. The AL West-leading Rangers are on a seven-game winning streak and will counter with Brandon McCarthy (3-1, 5.92), who also gets a break with Detroit slugger Magglio Ordonez out after being placed on the bereavement list Monday.
Texas opened as slight road favorites at Olympic with the odds at Texas -115, and the public jumped behind the streaking Rangers with the small odds. Texas is receiving 77% of moneyline bets, 84% of runline bets, and 74% of parlay bets. Those numbers have caused the odds to steadily climb to its current spot of Texas -135. During this movement, we saw multiple plays triggered on Detroit, including a Steam Move from Canbet (28-14, +14.3 units). This game also fits into the research included in our article MLB and Betting Against the Public. We’ll take the home dog Tigers.
Detroit Tigers +115
Games to Watch (15-8, +11.26 units)
Colorado Rockies +180 (SIA)
Detroit Tigers +115
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com