MLB Marketwatch Edition 5 2008

Sports MarketWatch
MLB Edition
7/11/2008 4:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published weekly on Friday, normally by 5PM Eastern Time.

The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming games.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

After a run-up that got us back to break-even, we’ve stumbled the past two weekends. One of the difficulties with money-line sports is that we usually pick underdogs that pay out more than +120 odds or so – but have less than a 50% chance of winning. This makes moneyline sports seemingly streakier. Historically, this strategy is profitable – but has some uncomfortable ups and downs.

2008 MLB Games to Watch: 7-15, 31.8%, -5.87 units

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Pittsburgh Pirates +110 over St. Louis Cardinals

The Pirates and Z. Duke make another “appearance” in MarketWatch’s selections. SportsInsights’ exclusive sports statistics show that “smart money” is on “the Duke.” Only about one-quarter of the bets are landing on the Pirates, but the line moved from its opener of St. Louis -129 at CRIS to -115 at most books.

This indicates that big, smart money is taking the Pirates. The Pirates are close to the basement in their division but are a solid 28-20 at home. We’ll jump on the smart money bandwagon and take Pittsburgh as a solid, live dog.

Pittsburgh Pirates +110

Arizona Diamondbacks +140 over Philadelphia Phillies

This is a battle of two first place teams, but you wouldn’t know it based on the betting percentages. The home team Phillies are collecting a huge 80% of the bets. The D-backs aren’t getting any respect even though they are in first place because they are merely a .500 team. In addition, they are a weak 19-27 on the road.

Note, however, that although the Phillies have been in first place for much of the season, they are playing just.538 ball. Not much higher than Arizona’s .500 record! We’ll grab the “contrarian value” on the Diamondbacks and “bet against the public.”

Arizona Diamondbacks +140

Texas Rangers +105 over Chicago White Sox

Early sharp action on Texas drove the line on this game from the opener of the White Sox -119 at Pinnacle to making the White Sox a very slight favorite of -108. The public loves the first place White Sox in this match-up, with about 75% of all bets landing on Chicago.

The Texas Rangers are above .500 overall — and above .500 at home. They have been playing solid ball recently, winning 6 of their last 10 games. We’ll take a solid home dog against a first place team that is below .500 on the road – and piggyback with the sharps!

Texas Rangers +105

Games to Watch (7-15, -5.87 units)
Pittsburgh Pirates +110
Arizona Diamondbacks +140
Texas Rangers +105

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at SportsInsights.com