MLB Marketwatch Edition 2 2008
Sports Marketwatch
MLB Edition
6/20/2008 4:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published weekly on Friday, normally by 5PM Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming games.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
Last week, the Sports MarketWatch had a good week, with two of our three dogs winning their games (two wins for +2.28 units – 1.0 unit loss). This gets us “off the mat” and brings the MarketWatch to a more reasonable level. Overall, this has been a good year for the approaches highlighted by SportsInsights and Sports MarketWatch. Let’s keep the positive vibes rolling and scan the sports marketplace for some good contrarian values!
2008 MLB Games to Watch: 4-10, 28.6%, -4.82 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Washington Nationals +107 over Texas Rangers
In baseball, “live home dogs” that the public “hates” typically have value. Today, the Washington Nationals show the parameters that we like to look for using SportsInsights’ sports data. The Nationals are grabbing less than 30% of the bets (including teasers and parlays).
With more than two-thirds of the bets landing on the Texas Rangers, the line has stayed rock solid with the Nationals as a slight underdog. The sportsbooks seem happy to take the other side of the Texas bets and aren’t moving the line much at all. In this match-up, we’ll “bet against the public” and take the side of the sportsbooks – with Washington as a solid home dog.
Washington Nationals +107
Pittsburgh Pirates +148 over Toronto Blue Jays
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Z. Duke have been a repeat selection in our column. The Pirates remain a league doormat in the public’s mind – even though they are just a few games below .500. Z. Duke hasn’t lived up to the great start to his career. However, consistency often takes time for young pitchers.
Roy Halladay, on the other hand, is a veteran star pitcher – and the public loves Toronto in this game. However, the “smart money” likes the home dog Pirates in this match-up. Both teams are below .500 – and the smart money believes that the Pirates at +148 are a good value.
With only about 30% of the bets, the Pirates opened at +152 at Pinnacle – but early sharp money has moved that down to the generally-available +140. You can still grab +148 at the exchanges (adjusted for commission).
Pittsburgh Pirates +148
Houston Astros +140 over Tampa Bay Devil Rays
How often do you get the great Roy Oswalt at +140 odds? Well, tonight is your chance! Roy Oswalt takes an unfamiliar 5.04 ERA (lifetime ERA is 3.19) and 5-7 record (lifetime record is 117-61!) versus the upstart Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
The public has seen almost half of the season go by – and sees Tampa Bay playing .600 ball. The Devil Rays are keeping pace with the Red Sox in an incredibly tough AL East Division that includes a Yankee team surging up to .550 ball. We’ll sell the TB D-Rays at a recent “high.” Oswalt has had a few solid outings recently – but is still looking to regain his “stuff.”
The public is pounding their bucks down on the Devil Rays – particularly in teasers and parlays. We’ll bet against the public and look for Oswalt to turn in a gem against a hyped-up Devil Ray team.
Houston Astros +140
Games to Watch (4-10, -4.82 units)
Washington Nationals +107
Pittsburgh Pirates +148 (TradeSports)
Houston Astros +140
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com