Sports MarketWatch

MLB Edition

8/8/2008 4:00 PM EST

By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!  Sports MarketWatch will be published weekly on Friday, normally by 5PM Eastern Time. 

The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.  We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming games.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

Well, there’s not much to say except that our Friday MarketWatch represents a small sample of what we do during the week.  Last week was a loser, with MLB MarketWatch going 0-3.  We’ll keep on plugging and eventually turn the corner with good, value plays.    

2008 MLB Games to Watch: 11-23, 32.4%, -9.85 units

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Chicago White Sox +103 over Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have the “name and reputation” but the White Sox have home field advantage.  The public is betting on the visiting Red Sox to the tune of almost 75% (including teasers and parlays) in this match-up of playoff contenders.

Home field is a huge factor in MLB and this edge has been even more apparent this year.  The Red Sox are playing .574 baseball – but are 7 games below .500 on the road!  Meanwhile, the first place White Sox are playing .558 ball but are a sparkling 37-17 (better than .667 ball!) at home.

There is a hint of smart money on the White Sox in this game, with the line moving slightly in the direction of the White Sox – even with almost three-quarters of the bets landing on the Bosox.  We’ll take the Chisox at home with the “plus” odds at Matchbook.      

Chicago White Sox +103(Matchbook)

San Francisco Giants +113 over LA Dodgers

With Manny arriving in Dodger-land, there is talk that the Dodgers are now one of the elite powerhouses in MLB.  Talk like this often creates value on the other side – especially when the opponent is a basement dweller like the SF Giants. 

Barry Zito has been pitching better of late and we’ll grab the Giants at home against a potentially over-valued Dodger team.  The Dodgers are polling a huge 85% of the votes – I mean “bets” – so we’ll “bet against the public” and take the home team Giants. 

San Francisco Giants +113

Oakland A’s +144 over Detroit Tigers

When you lose ten games in a row, you won’t have much fan – or betting – support.  The Oakland A’s have lost ten in a row and have fallen out of the wild card race.  On the other hand, Detroit is still on the cusp of the wild card hunt.

Many bettors probably see this game as a dispirited Oakland team that is giving up on the season – against a Detroit team that still has an outside chance of making the playoffs.  More than 80% of the bets are on the home team Tigers.  However, SportsInsights’ betting statistics indicate the existence of “smart money” taking the Oakland A’s. 

With most of the bets coming in on Detroit, the line actually decreased from Detroit -165 at the open (CRIS) to the current -158 at Cris.  We like “betting against the public” and joining the “smart money” on Oakland.  The 10-game losing streak adds contrarian value to this play. 

Oakland A’s +144

Games to Watch (11-23, -9.85 units)

Chicago White Sox +103(Matchbook)

San Francisco Giants +113

Oakland A’s +144

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at SportsInsights.com